항만투자와 경제성장의 인과관계에 대한 소고
A Note on the Causal Relationship between Seaport Investment and Economic Growth in Korea
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Abstract
The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between seaport investment and economic growth, and to obtain policy implications of the results. To this end, the author attempts to provide a more careful consideration of the causality issues by applying rigorous techniques of Granger-causality. Tests for unit roots, co-integration, and Granger-causality based on an error-correction model are presented. They employ annual data covering the period 1970-2002. The existence of uni-directional causality running from seaport investment to economic growth is detected. This finding has important implications for seaport policy analysts and forecasters. An increase in seaport investment directly affects economic growth, though there are many other factors contributing to economic growth, and seaport investment is but one part of it. Thus, this study generates confidence in decisions to invest in the seaport infrastructure. Moreover, this study does not support the argument that economic growth, ceteris paribus, gives rise to seaport investment.
참고문헌 (13)
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