Capability for China’s Intervention by Sea in the Total War on the Korean Peninsula in 2049—By Using Scenario Planning Methodology
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What will be the pattern of China’s maritime intervention by the year 2049, and what capabilities will be necessary for such an intervention? This paper aims to propose a force development strategy based on an evaluation of our naval capabilities in comparison to China’s by 2049. It intends to address the gap in force development studies that have predominantly focused on threats from the North’s nuclear and conventional armed conflict, as well as on defense innovation within the framework of Defense Innovation 4.0. Two methodologies will be employed to forecast the enemy’s future capabilities. The first is scenario planning, which involves assuming a specific future in detail and predicting patterns of engagement using probable assumptions among various possible futures. This approach allows for the depiction of a detailed future when writing scenarios. The second methodology is static comparative analysis, which involves a quantitative comparison to identify capabilities we need to develop. Despite its limitation in symmetrical comparison and not accounting for the multi-dimensional complexity of battle, this method provides a relatively straightforward way to infer future warfare capabilities. The value of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it establishes a benchmark for understanding the level and pattern of China’s potential maritime intervention in the Korean Peninsula by 2049. Secondly, it serves as a foundational logic for future force development planning. Thirdly, it offers insights into the necessary force adjustments in response to future engagements with China that could significantly alter the strategic balance to our disadvantage.
Abstract
What will be the pattern of China’s maritime intervention by the year 2049, and what capabilities will be necessary for such an intervention? This paper aims to propose a force development strategy based on an evaluation of our naval capabilities in comparison to China’s by 2049. It intends to address the gap in force development studies that have predominantly focused on threats from the North’s nuclear and conventional armed conflict, as well as on defense innovation within the framework of Defense Innovation 4.0. Two methodologies will be employed to forecast the enemy’s future capabilities. The first is scenario planning, which involves assuming a specific future in detail and predicting patterns of engagement using probable assumptions among various possible futures. This approach allows for the depiction of a detailed future when writing scenarios. The second methodology is static comparative analysis, which involves a quantitative comparison to identify capabilities we need to develop. Despite its limitation in symmetrical comparison and not accounting for the multi-dimensional complexity of battle, this method provides a relatively straightforward way to infer future warfare capabilities. The value of this paper is threefold. Firstly, it establishes a benchmark for understanding the level and pattern of China’s potential maritime intervention in the Korean Peninsula by 2049. Secondly, it serves as a foundational logic for future force development planning. Thirdly, it offers insights into the necessary force adjustments in response to future engagements with China that could significantly alter the strategic balance to our disadvantage.
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