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미얀마 천연가스의 정치경제학

The Political Economy of Natural Gas in Myanmar

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Abstract

The recent situation under the dearth of fossil-fuels on the global scale has provided the opportunities to stabilize the turbulent international relations of Myanmar for its military regime, having the surrounding nations against it for its harsh and authoritarian rule. The natural gas having been produced since 2000 in Myanmar is emerging not merely as a product of treasure to fill up the destitute finance, but also as a political reliefer to help the military leaders being placed in predicaments. In the latter perspective, the paper examines the real facet of the natural resource serving as a tool seeming like multipurpose key to the complex political and economic aspects in contemporary Myanmar. First of all, the military regime has been greatly helped to reconstruct the international relations by the accumulative foreign investment and increasing trade from the neighboring nations, Thailand, China, and India, which are supplied with the natural gas. The junta benefits enormously from the rivalry between China and India. In this paper a model of mandala is proposed to show the complicate relations between Myanmar and peripheral nations. As a result, stimulated by the development and production of natural gas, the confident regime has seized the frontier areas, specifically eastern parts along the Thai border, where various ethnic minorities have lived up to their traditional ways of life. As a matter of fact, the internal displacement in the areas has been occurring in favor of constructing power plants or connecting gas pipelines ever since 2000, resulting in over 200,000 refugees crossing over to Thailand. The military regime might regard it as a sort of pacification for the first time after the independence. It should be noted, however, that the ethnic conflict may repeatedly happen in reflecting the modern history of Myanmar as the current military leaders pursue its own purpose of authoritarian rule. In these respects, whether the natural gas is beneficial or harmful to the future of Myanmar, the political situation of the regime at a first glance seems to be dependent on the attitudes and roles of neighboring countries under no other solutions. As they do not seem to play their own role for Myanmar's political improvement, it is suggested that the schedule of the road-map for democracy should be rather encouraged and promoted to proceed on right time so that the constitutional rule, notwithstanding its absurd, irrational contexts, be readily established to start the civil, though ostensible, government by election to be held.

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