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원가하방경직성이 미래 실업률에 미치는 영향

Effect of Aggregate Cost Stickiness on Future Unemployment Rate

이진수|오상희
한국세무회계학회 (Kata(Korean Association Of Tax & Accounting))|2022.06|세무회계연구 (Tax Accounting Research)|제72호|pp. 165-184

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키워드

실업률Unemployment RateCost Behavior원가 행태하방 경직성거시변수Aggregate Cost StickinessMacro Variables

초록

[연구목적]본 연구는 원가의 비대칭적 행동 즉 경영자가 매출이 감소 할 경우 원가를 감소 혹은 증가할 것인지를 염두에 두고, 미래 실업률을 예측하는 것이 가능한지를 살펴보는 것이다. [연구방법]원가 경직성과 실업률의 예측에 관한 가설을 검증하기 위한 모형은 Florent et al.(2018)의 연구를 바탕으로 회귀분석을 수행한다. 종속변수인 실업률은 미래의 분기별 실제 실업률의 변화분으로 측정하고, 미래시점은 t＋1부터 t＋4기 까지 설정하였다. 독립변수인 원가하방 경직성은 Anderson et al.(2003)모형을 적용하여 측정하였다. [연구결과]결과를 요약하면, 당 분기의 원가하방경직성은 미래의 모든 분기에서 실업률을 줄이는 방향으로 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 기업의 경영자 입장에서 당분기의 매출액이 감소하더라도, 미래 조업도 회복을 염두에 둔 원가경직성이 실업률의 증가를 완화시키는 것으로 작용한다고 판단된다. 혹은 조정비용의 부담으로 인하여 원가의 하방 경직성이 발생하고, 이는 결국 실업률의 감소(증가의 완화)로 이어진다고 할 수 있는 것이다. [연구의 시사점]본 연구의 의의 및 차별성은 원가의 하방 경직성을 거시경제의 주요 변수인 실업률과 연계 시킨점에서 공헌점을 가진다. 이전의 연구에서는 이러한 연구가 부족했으며, COVID 19 등 최근 실업률이 증가하고 있는 시점에서도 시의 적절한 연구라도 생각된다. 다만 본 연구의 한계점은 보다 많은 표본을 포함하지 못해, 연구를 일반화 하기에 다소 무리가 있다는 점을 한계점으로 들 수 있다.

Abstract

[Purpose]This study examines whether it is possible to predict the future unemployment rate, taking into account the cost asymmetry behavior, that is, whether the manager will reduce or increase costs when sales decrease. [Methodology]We use a regression model to test the hypothesis about cost stickiness. The prediction of the unemployment rate is based on the study of Florent et al.(2018). The dependent variable, the unemployment rate, was measured as the change in the future quarterly actual unemployment rate, and future time points were set from t＋1 to t＋4. The independent variable, cost stickiness was measured by applying the Anderson et al.(2003) model. [Findings]Summarizing the results, it was found that the downward cost stickiness in the current quarter has an effect in the direction of reducing the unemployment rate in all future quarters. From the perspective of corporate managers, it is judged that cost stickiness with the recovery of future operations in mind works to mitigate the increase in the unemployment rate, even if sales in the current quarter decrease. Alternatively, the burden of adjustment costs causes downward stickiness in costs, which in turn leads to a decrease (moderate increase) in the unemployment rate. [Implications]The significance and differentiation of this study has a contribution in that it links the downward stickiness of costs with the unemployment rate, which is a major variable in macroeconomic conditions. Previous studies lacked such studies, and it is considered a timely study even at a time when the unemployment rate is increasing recently, such as COVID－19. However, the limitation of this study is that it does not include a larger number of samples, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the study.[Purpose]This study examines whether it is possible to predict the future unemployment rate, taking into account the cost asymmetry behavior, that is, whether the manager will reduce or increase costs when sales decrease. [Methodology]We use a regression model to test the hypothesis about cost stickiness. The prediction of the unemployment rate is based on the study of Florent et al.(2018). The dependent variable, the unemployment rate, was measured as the change in the future quarterly actual unemployment rate, and future time points were set from t＋1 to t＋4. The independent variable, cost stickiness was measured by applying the Anderson et al.(2003) model. [Findings]Summarizing the results, it was found that the downward cost stickiness in the current quarter has an effect in the direction of reducing the unemployment rate in all future quarters. From the perspective of corporate managers, it is judged that cost stickiness with the recovery of future operations in mind works to mitigate the increase in the unemployment rate, even if sales in the current quarter decrease. Alternatively, the burden of adjustment costs causes downward stickiness in costs, which in turn leads to a decrease (moderate increase) in the unemployment rate. [Implications]The significance and differentiation of this study has a contribution in that it links the downward stickiness of costs with the unemployment rate, which is a major variable in macroeconomic conditions. Previous studies lacked such studies, and it is considered a timely study even at a time when the unemployment rate is increasing recently, such as COVID－19. However, the limitation of this study is that it does not include a larger number of samples, making it somewhat difficult to generalize the study.

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