수도권 교외지역의 성장과 분화 경로: 시계열 주성분분석과 군집분석을 통한 유형화

Abstract

This study empirically examines the spatial structural transformation of suburban areas in the Seoul Metropolitan Region at the si/gun/gu level, using multidimensional time-series data—including population, housing, socioeconomics, industry, and mobility—collected at six time points from 1995 to 2020. Principal Component Analysis(PCA) identifies four core axes—urbanity, quantitative growth, industrial structure, and functional factors— and reveals how their relative importance and internal composition are dynamically reorganized across periods. Cluster analysis demonstrates that 6 to 7 distinct regional types coexisted at each time point, with suburban space diversifying into more differentiated subregions over time. By tracing the cluster membership changes of individual areas, the study uncovers multilayered transition paths that cannot be explained by a simple life-cycle model. The results confirm that suburban transformation is shaped by interacting policy, industrial, demographic, and housing factors, leading to various dynamic trajectories rather than a single developmental sequence. These findings highlight the necessity for suburban management and regeneration policies to employ differentiated, path-dependent approaches that account for the distinctive characteristics and potential risks or opportunities of each transition route.