한국 코로나19 유행기에 대한 제안

Abstract

Objectives: In the epidemiology of communicable diseases, the term epidemic period, also referred to as "wave" is often used in the general and academic milieu. A wave refers to a natural pattern of increase in the number of sick individuals, a defined peak, and then a decline in the number of cases. It implies a pattern of peaks and valleys after a particular peak is taken. The idea of epidemic waves is a useful tool for predicting the course as well as helping to accurately describe an epidemic. However, in many domestic and foreign news as well as in various research results in Korea, most of the reports either had no standard, were inaccurate, had a questionable classification of the period of the epidemic, or the basis for classification of a given wave was not presented. Methods: The author reviewed and organized related literature with epidemic wave. The author made several suggestions of an epidemic wave as follows. Results: To start with, it should be based on the number of incident cases in consideration of the size of the outbreak, then the period from the bottom to the peak and then reaching the next bottom; also, the period over a certain scale based on the number of incident cases; and the period according to the change in the major infection type (mutation-dominant species). In addition, according to the period of change in the vaccination rate (formation of herd immunity), as well as the content and duration of the intervention, that is, classification according to the applied quarantine stage. Furthermore, the classification of epidemic periods by the time-dependent reproduction number or time-varying reproduction number (Rt), and lastly the application of mathematical methodology. Conclusions: Therefore, classifying the epidemic period into generally known and accepted time frames is considered to be a very important task for future research analysis and development of intervention strategies.