본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Transmission and Intervention in South Korea: A Review of Literature

2

조회

0

다운로드

0

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류의학일반

초록

South Korea implemented interventions to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with discovery of the first case in early 2020. Mathematical modeling designed to reflect the dynamics of disease transmission has been shown to be an important tool for responding to COVID-19. This study aimed to review publications on the structure, meth od, and role of mathematical models focusing on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Korea. In total, 42 papers published be tween August 7, 2020 and August 21, 2022 were studied and reviewed. This study highlights the construction and utilization of mathematical models to help craft strategies for predicting the course of an epidemic and evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies. Despite the limitations caused by a lack of available epidemiological and surveillance data, modeling studies could contribute to providing scientific evidence for policymaking by simulating various scenarios.

Abstract

South Korea implemented interventions to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with discovery of the first case in early 2020. Mathematical modeling designed to reflect the dynamics of disease transmission has been shown to be an important tool for responding to COVID-19. This study aimed to review publications on the structure, meth od, and role of mathematical models focusing on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Korea. In total, 42 papers published be tween August 7, 2020 and August 21, 2022 were studied and reviewed. This study highlights the construction and utilization of mathematical models to help craft strategies for predicting the course of an epidemic and evaluating the effectiveness of control strategies. Despite the limitations caused by a lack of available epidemiological and surveillance data, modeling studies could contribute to providing scientific evidence for policymaking by simulating various scenarios.

참고문헌 (65)

  1. Won YS, "Subcritical transmission in the early stage of COVID-19 in Korea", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.1265~ (2021)
  2. Lee H, "Risk assessment of importation and local transmission of COVID-19 in South Korea : statistical modeling approach", JMIR Public Health Surveill, 7, pp.e26784~ (2021)
  3. Lee C, "Estimation of undetected asymptomatic COVID-19 cases in South Korea using a probabilistic model", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.4946~ (2021)
  4. 최선화, "Analyzing the effects of social distancing on the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea using mathematical modeling", Epidemiology and Health, 42, pp.1~6 (2020), 한국역학회[DOI]
  5. 최선화, "Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea", Epidemiology and Health, 42, pp.1~10 (2020), 한국역학회[DOI]
  6. 김소영, "Prediction of COVID-19 transmission dynamics using a mathematical model considering behavior changes", Epidemiology and Health, 42, pp.1~6 (2020), 한국역학회[DOI]
  7. Jung SY, "Real-world implications of a rapidly responsive COVID-19 spread model with time-dependent parameters via deep learning : model development and validation", J Med Internet Res, 22, pp.e19907~ (2020)
  8. Ryu S, "Estimation of the excess COVID-19 cases in Seoul, South Korea by the students arriving from China", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 17, pp.3113~ (2020)
  9. Kim S, "Keeping low reproductive number despite the rebound population mobility in Korea, a country never under lockdown during the COVID-19 pandemic", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 17, pp.9551~ (2020)
  10. Bae Tae Wuk, "Mass Infection Analysis of COVID-19 Using the SEIRD Model in Daegu-Gyeongbuk of Korea from April to May, 2020", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 35(34), pp.1~14 (2020), 대한의학회[DOI]
  11. Lee H, "Forecasting COVID-19 cases by assessing control-intervention effects in Republic of Korea : a statistical modeling approach", Alex Eng J, 61, pp.9203~9217 (2022)
  12. Kim S, "The impact of social distancing and public behavior changes on COVID-19 transmission dynamics in the Republic of Korea", PLoS One, 15, pp.e0238684~ (2020)
  13. Memarbashi R, "A dynamic model for the COVID-19 with direct and indirect transmission pathways", Math Methods Appl Sci, 44, pp.5873~5887 (2021)
  14. Lee C, "Controlling COVID-19 outbreaks with financial incentives", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.724~ (2021)
  15. Kim YJ, "Estimating a breakpoint in the pattern of spread of COVID-19 in South Korea", Int J Infect Dis, 97, pp.360~364 (2020)
  16. 조수민, "SIR 모형을 이용한 한국의 코로나19 확산에 대한 개입 효과 분석", 응용통계연구, 34(3), pp.477~489 (2021), 한국통계학회
  17. Wang F, "Mathematical modeling of mutated COVID-19 transmission with quarantine, isolation and vaccination", Math Biosci Eng, 19, pp.8035~8056 (2022)
  18. Choi W, "Optimal strategies for social distancing and testing to control COVID-19", J Theor Biol, 512, pp.110568~ (2021)
  19. Feng XM, "Phase-adjusted estimation of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea under multi-source data and adjustment measures : a modelling study", Math Biosci Eng, 17, pp.3637~3648 (2020)
  20. Park H, "A study on herd immunity of COVID-19 in South Korea: using a stochastic economic-epidemiological model", Environ Resour Econ(Dordr), 76, pp.665~670 (2020)
  21. Shin HY, "A multi-stage SEIR(D)model of the COVID-19 epidemic in Korea", Ann Med, 53, pp.1159~1169 (2021)
  22. Choi Y, "Assessment of social distancing for controlling COVID-19 in Korea : an age-structured modeling approach", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 17, pp.7474~ (2020)
  23. Kim JE, "Booster vaccination strategies for"living with COVID-19"", Front Public Health, 10, pp.896713~ (2022)
  24. Ko Y, "COVID-19 vaccine priority strategy using a heterogenous transmission model based on maximum likelihood estimation in the Republic of Korea", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.6469~ (2021)
  25. Min Kyung-Duk, "Dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in the post-vaccination period in Korea: a rapid assessment", Epidemiology and Health, 43, pp.1~7 (2021), 한국역학회[DOI]
  26. 민경덕, "Estimating the Effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Control in Korea", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 35(35), pp.1~13 (2020), 대한의학회[DOI]
  27. Shim E, "Optimal allocation of the limited COVID-19 vaccine supply in South Korea", J Clin Med, 10, pp.591~ (2021)
  28. Shim E, "Projecting the impact of SARS-CoV-2 variants and the vaccination program on the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.7578~ (2021)
  29. 김소영, "School Opening Delay Effect on Transmission Dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 in Korea: Based on Mathematical Modeling and Simulation Study", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 35(13), pp.1~9 (2020), 대한의학회[DOI]
  30. Lee T, "The effect of control measures on COVID-19transmission in South Korea", PLoS One, 16, pp.e0249262~ (2021)
  31. Choi Y, "Vaccination prioritization strategies for COVID-19 in Korea : a mathematical modeling approach", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 18, pp.4240~ (2021)
  32. Chun JY, "Age-varying susceptibility to the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of SARS-CoV-2", JAMA Netw Open, 5, pp.e223064~ (2022)
  33. Youngji Jo, "Optimal Social Distancing Policy for COVID-19 Control in Korea: A Model-Based Analysis", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 37(23), pp.1~15 (2022), 대한의학회[DOI]
  34. 고영석, "Risk of COVID-19 transmission in heterogeneous age groups and effective vaccination strategy in Korea: a mathematical modeling study", Epidemiology and Health, 43, pp.1~9 (2021), 한국역학회[DOI]
  35. Baek YJ, "A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies", PLoS One, 15, pp.e0241169~ (2020)
  36. 손우식, "Individual-based simulation model for COVID-19 transmission in Daegu, Korea", Epidemiology and Health, 42, pp.1~6 (2020), 한국역학회
  37. 권오규, "Intervention effects in the transmission of COVID-19 depending on the detection rate and extent of isolation", Epidemiology and Health, 42, pp.1~7 (2020), 한국역학회
  38. Kim Namje, "Reconstructing a COVID-19 outbreak within a religious group using social network analysis simulation", Epidemiology and Health, 43, pp.1~7 (2021), 한국역학회[DOI]
  39. Ryu H, "Assessing the effectiveness of isolation and contact-tracing interventions for early transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Korea", IEEE Access, 9, pp.41456~41467 (2021)
  40. Ko Youngsuk, "Multi-Faceted Analysis of COVID-19 Epidemic in Korea Considering Omicron Variant: Mathematical Modeling-Based Study", Journal of Korean Medical Science, 37(26), pp.1~16 (2022), 대한의학회[DOI]
  41. Kim BN, "Mathematical model of COVID-19transmission dynamics in South Korea : the impacts of travel restrictions, social distancing, and early detection", Processes, 8, pp.1304~ (2020)
  42. Kim JH, "Rapid transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 within a religious sect in South Korea : a mathematical modeling study", Epidemics, 37, pp.100519~ (2021)
  43. "Corona 19 weekly confirmed cases decreased by 22.1% compared to the previous week (10.12. Wed regular briefing)"[URL]
  44. Mossong J, "Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases", PLoS Med, 5, pp.e74~ (2008)
  45. "Forecasting the spread of COVID-19"[URL]
  46. Taylan O, "Impact of COVID-19 on G20countries : analysis of economic recession using data mining approaches", Financ Innov, 8, pp.81~ (2022)
  47. Patenaude B, "Modeling the potential economic benefits of an oral SARS-CoV-2 vaccine during an outbreak of COVID-19", BMC Public Health, 22, pp.1792~ (2022)
  48. Chen K, "Efficient social distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic : integrating economic and public health considerations", Eur J Oper Res, 304, pp.84~98 (2023)
  49. Canatay A, "Critical countrylevel determinants of death rate during Covid-19 pandemic", Int J Disaster Risk Reduct, 64, pp.102507~ (2021)
  50. Moyles IR, "Cost and social distancing dynamics in a mathematical model of COVID-19 with application to Ontario, Canada", R Soc Open Sci, 8, pp.201770~ (2021)
  51. Lee SW, "Nationwide results of COVID-19 contact tracing in South Korea : individual participant data from an epidemiological survey", JMIR Med Inform, 8, pp.e20992~ (2020)
  52. Jo W, "A social network analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in South Korea and policy implications", Sci Rep, 11, pp.8581~ (2021)
  53. Cheng HY, "Contact tracing assessment of COVID-19 transmission dynamics in Taiwan and risk at different exposure periods before and after symptom onset", JAMA Intern Med, 180, pp.1156~1163 (2020)
  54. Liu H, "Sociodemographic and policy factors associated with the transmission of COVID-19 : analyzing longitudinal contact tracing data from a northern Chinese city", J Urban Health, 99, pp.582~593 (2022)
  55. Béraud G, "The French connection : the first large populationbased contact survey in France relevant for the spread of infectious diseases", PLoS One, 10, pp.e0133203~ (2015)
  56. Horby P, "Social contact patterns in Vietnam and implications for the control of infectious diseases", PLoS One, 6, pp.e16965~ (2011)
  57. Leung K, "Social contact patterns relevant to the spread of respiratory infectious diseases in Hong Kong", Sci Rep, 7, pp.7974~ (2017)
  58. Ibuka Y, "Social contacts, vaccination decisions and influenza in Japan", J Epidemiol Community Health, 70, pp.162~167 (2016)
  59. Dodd PJ, "Age-and sex-specific social contact patterns and incidence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection", Am J Epidemiol, 183, pp.156~166 (2016)
  60. Read JM, "Social mixing patterns in rural and urban areas of southern China", Proc Biol Sci, 281, pp.20140268~ (2014)
  61. Gregson S, "HIV decline associated with behavior change in eastern Zimbabwe", Science, 311, pp.664~666 (2006)
  62. Grijalva CG, "A household-based study of contact networks relevant for the spread of infectious diseases in the highlands of Peru", PLoS One, 10, pp.e0118457~ (2015)
  63. Litvinova M, "Reactive school closure weakens the network of social interactions and reduces the spread of influenza", Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A, 116, pp.13174~13181 (2019)
  64. Shakiba M, "Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Guilan Province, Iran, April 2020", Emerg Infect Dis, 27, pp.636~638 (2021)
  65. Wells PM, "Estimates of the rate of infection and asymptomatic COVID-19 disease in a population sample from SE England", J Infect, 81, pp.931~936 (2020)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (9건)