UPA집권 성공요인과 2009년 인도 총선거 특성연구
A Study of Success Factors of the UPA and Characteristics of the 2009 Indian General Elections
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이 글은 2009년 인도 총선에서 UPA가 성공할 수 있었던 주요 요인을 분석하고 선거에서 나타난 특징을 살펴보고자 한다. 분석결과 UPA의 성공요인은 크게 세 가지로 나타났다. 첫째, INC(I)의 포괄정당으로서의 재 부활을 들 수 있다. INC(I)는 UPA집권 1기 동안 지속적으로 모든 계층과 이익집단을 아우르는 범민족주의 노선을 추구한 결과 여러 지역에서 전통적 지지기반이 회복되는 현상이 나타났다. 둘째는 UPA 1기 정부의 성공적인 국정운영 실적이다. 특히, UPA 1기 정부의 경제정책과 성과는 많은 인도 유권자들의 지지를 받았다. 교육과 건강과 같은 사회분야 발전에 예산 비중을 증대시키는 등 소위 인간의 얼굴을 한 경제발전을 추구하면서 연평균 8.9%의 경제성장을 이룩했다. 셋째, 선거이슈측면에서도 INC(I)가 이끄는 UPA는 BJP주도의 NDA에 비해 유리한 입장에 있었다. BJP와 NDA가 총선기간 집중 부각시킨 테러문제, 미국과의 핵협정, 람 세투 문제 등은 인도 유권자들로부터 많은 지지를 받지 못했다. 2009년 인도 총선의 주요 특징도 크게 가지로 설명되어진다. 첫째, 2009년 인도 총선은 핵심 이슈가 부재한 상태에서 주요 정당들의 지도자 브랜드 대결구도로 치러졌다. 둘째, 인도에서 세습 정치가 점차 제도화, 고착화 되고 있다는 점이다. 셋째, 제3후보의 역할이 당선자를 좌우하는 결정적인 역할을 했다는 것이다.
Abstract
This paper analyses success factors of the UPA and characteristics of the 2009 Indian general elections. It was found that three major factors had played a role in the success of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in the 2009 general elections in India. First, the INC(I) has somehow revived its earlier strong feature as the catch-all party. It has shown that the INC(I) could recapture its traditional support bases in some states because the party during the first term of the UPA government had pursued the pan-nationalism without concerning race, religion, cate, language, and region. Second, it is analysed that many Indians were satisfied in running state affairs of the first regime of Congress-led UPA. Especially many Indian electorates were happy with average annual growth rate of 8.9% of the first regime of UPA while it increased budgetary allotment for social sectors such as education and health by pursuing so-called “human face development policies”. Thirdly, in terms of election issues, the Congress-led UPA had also an advantages over the BJP and NDA. Indian electorates did not consider some of the issues such as terrorist attacks, Indo-US nuclear deal, Ram Sethu controversy highlighted by the BJP and NDA to have much relevance to them. These factors played a decisive role in the victory of the UPA in the 2009 Indian general elections. It is also explained that there are three major characteristics in the 2009 Indian general elections. First, the elections was conducted in the situation where the leaders’ brand of the major political parties played a key role in determining the poll outcome when there was lack of election issues which dominated the election campaigns. Secondly, It was found that hereditary politics has become institutionalized and a permanent feature in India. Third notable feature was that third candidate played a key role in deciding the winner in many constituencies.
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