基於STIRPAT模型的碳排放驅動因素研究 -以中國河北省為例-
Driving Factors Analysis of Carbon Emissions based on STIＲPAT Model -A Case Study of Hebei Province
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河北省作為我國重要的工業省份，近年來，環境問題一直成為影響居民生活水準、阻礙經濟可持續發展的重要因素。為進一步剖析造成河北省大氣環境污染的原因，本文以Kaya恒等式為理論依據，運用STIRPAT模型對河北省1997-2017年的碳排量進行分解 ，同時，為了驗證環境庫茲涅茨曲線的存在性，本文在變數選取時加入表示經濟發展的平方項。結果表明，人口規模、單位能耗碳排量等因素對碳排量起到促進作用，且河北省目前尚不存在環境庫茲涅茨曲線。根據結果，本文從改變經濟發展方式、提高技術水準、制定合理的人口政策等方面提出了相應的建議。
Abstract
As an important industrial district in China, Hebei Province has been an important factor influencing residents' living standards and impeding sustainable economic development in recent years. In order to further analyze the causes of atmospheric pollution in Hebei Province, this paper uses Kaya identities as the theoretical basis to use the STIRPAT model to decompose the carbon emissions in Hebei Province from 1997 to 2017. And at the same time, in order to verify the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve, in this paper, when adding variables, the square term representing economic development is added. The results show that factors such as population size and carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption contribute to carbon emissions, and there is no environmental Kuznets curve in Hebei Province. According to the results, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions from the aspects of changing the economic development mode, improving the technical level, and formulating a reasonable population policy.
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