中国经常账户调整是危机冲击还是结构性转型驱动
Chinese Current Account Adjustment: Crisis Shock or Structural Transformation Driving?
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The reversal of the growing trend of China’s current account surplus has drawn the attention from various fields since US sub-prime lending crisis. By adopting the industry-level trade data, the paper reveals the industrial structural feature of China’s current account surplus. Further, the paper figures out firms’ leading forces in each industry by using the firm-level trade data. The results show: (1) Labor-intensive industries are the main sources of China’s trade surplus while the foreign exchange-earning ability of technology-intensive industries is still relatively weak. (2) In most industries, trade surplus is mainly attributed to the quantity-expansion effect of existing products, and the effect of industrial upgrading out of high-tech enterprises and new products are negligible. (3) The quantity-expansion effect drives the rapid recovery growth of China’s trade surplus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and it can be properly inferred that the adjustment of China’s current account structure should be attributed to Chinese economy structural transformation other than crisis shock.
Abstract
The reversal of the growing trend of China’s current account surplus has drawn the attention from various fields since US sub-prime lending crisis. By adopting the industry-level trade data, the paper reveals the industrial structural feature of China’s current account surplus. Further, the paper figures out firms’ leading forces in each industry by using the firm-level trade data. The results show: (1) Labor-intensive industries are the main sources of China’s trade surplus while the foreign exchange-earning ability of technology-intensive industries is still relatively weak. (2) In most industries, trade surplus is mainly attributed to the quantity-expansion effect of existing products, and the effect of industrial upgrading out of high-tech enterprises and new products are negligible. (3) The quantity-expansion effect drives the rapid recovery growth of China’s trade surplus after the 2008 global financial crisis, and it can be properly inferred that the adjustment of China’s current account structure should be attributed to Chinese economy structural transformation other than crisis shock.
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