중국 제조업 효율성 변화에 대한 실증분석
Changes in the Efficiency of the Chinese Manufacturing Industry
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최근 중국의 수출입이 급증세를 보이면서 무역흑자도 크게 늘어나고 있는데, 이러한 무역흑자 급증이 그 동안 제조업의 효율성 개선으로 중국의 가공무역 공장 역할이 변화된 데 기인하는지에 대한 관심이 커지고 있다. 본 연구에서 중국 제조업 업종들을 기술수준별로 나눈 후 효율성 변화에 대해 실증분석한 결과에 의하면, 고기술 산업과 중기술 산업을 중심으로 제조업 효율성이 상당히 개선된 것으로 나타나 그 동안 중국 제조업의 가공무역공장 역할에 변화가 생긴 것으로 보인다. 반면 중기술 산업의 경우 외자기업의 비중이 비교적 낮기 때문에 기술파급효과 등에 의해 국내기업의 효율성이 상당히 개선된 것으로 보인다. 중국 제조업이 조립생산형 산업구조에서 중간재와 최종재를 모두 직접 생산하는 일관생산형 산업구조로 빠르게 변모함에 따라 우리나라의 중국에 대한 중간재 수출이 과거보다 줄어들 수 있으므로, 이에 대한 적절한 대응방안 마련이 필요할 것이다.
Abstract
In analyzing the factors that have led China to move up in the structure of international vertical trade, a number of studies have focused on its trade dimension. Contrary to these studies, this research examines the role of Chinese manufacturing industry in China’s upward shift in the value chain. This study measures the efficiency of Chinese manufacturing industry by adopting the stochastic frontier approach model, which uses the inefficient error term in the Cobb-Douglas production function. The manufacturing industry classification from EU-KLEMS and CEIC from the sample period of 1996 to 2005 for five countries (China, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and South Korea) is the data used. The industry classification is classified into three categories according to technology level, following the OECD standard. The sample period is divided into two eras of 1996 to 2000 and 2001 to 2005, since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. This study finds that the efficiency of the Chinese manufacturing industry has substantially improved in the high- and medium- technology industries since 2001.This improvement in the Chinese manufacturing industry’s efficiency appears to have helped China’s transformation from a “world assembler” to a more sophisticated producer. These findings suggest that the export of intermediate goods from Japan and the East Asian Newly Industrialized Economies to China is likely to decline.
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