중국 국유기업 부채의 시스템 위기 전이가능성 평가

Abstract

This paper intends to predict the future of state-owned companies by reviewing the positive and negative roles of them in the Chinese economy. As the debts of state-owned companies of China increase rapidly, state debts also grow steadily in recent years. But it is expected that state-owned companies has less serious debt repayment ability because their net profits rise favorably and their deposits also mount steadily. As the increase of state-owned companies' debts results in the growth of state debts in China and in the enhancement of the ratio of commercial banks' bad loans, the crises of them tend to expand into state and commercial banks. But net profits of commercial banks in China have mounted significantly though non-performing loans(NPL) of them grow to an extent. As a result, it is not expected that the increase of NPL brings about the crises of commercial banks. Nevertheless it is possible that state-owned companies-oriented supporting policies cause less efficiency of overall companies or the fall of real estate market. As for Korean economy, the slow state-owned companies' reform is expected to lead to the unstability of Chinese economy. Accordingly, it will have a negative effect on Korean exports or investment in China. Therefore, Korea need to strengthen monitoring and expand export or investment in other countries. On the other hand, in case state-owned companies' reform goes well, Korean companies will face more competitive Chinese companies. As a result, Korea need to try to gain comparative advantages while monitoring the process of state-owned companies' reform.