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Analysis of Asymmetric Impact of Tourism on Ecological Footprint in Thailand

Utai Uprasen
동남아연구소 (Center for Southeast Asian Studies)|2024.04|동남아연구|제34권 제1호|pp. 139-174

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TourismThailandEcological footprintNonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL)Toda-Yamamoto causality analysis
주제분류학제간연구

초록

Thailand is renowned as a leading global travel hotspot. Tourism is a crucial pillar supporting the nation’s economic growth, making up over 20.30% of its gross domestic product (GDP). However, on the ecological side, Thailand consistently consumes more resources than its natural capacity can support. This discrepancy is influenced by numerous factors, with the growth in tourism being one of key drivers. This study investigates the connection between the surge in tourism and Thailand’s ecological impact from 1961 to 2019, using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach. Additionally, the research incorporates the Toda and Yamamoto causality method to ensure a robust analysis. Preliminary analysis reveals that a 1% increase in tourism correlates with roughly a 0.880% jump in ecological footprint. Conversely, a 1% drop leads to a 0.201% decline in the environmental footprint. These trends highlight the potential negative repercussions for Thailand’s tourism industry. The outcomes from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis align with the results from the Toda and Yamamoto causality test.

Abstract

Thailand is renowned as a leading global travel hotspot. Tourism is a crucial pillar supporting the nation’s economic growth, making up over 20.30% of its gross domestic product (GDP). However, on the ecological side, Thailand consistently consumes more resources than its natural capacity can support. This discrepancy is influenced by numerous factors, with the growth in tourism being one of key drivers. This study investigates the connection between the surge in tourism and Thailand’s ecological impact from 1961 to 2019, using the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag approach. Additionally, the research incorporates the Toda and Yamamoto causality method to ensure a robust analysis. Preliminary analysis reveals that a 1% increase in tourism correlates with roughly a 0.880% jump in ecological footprint. Conversely, a 1% drop leads to a 0.201% decline in the environmental footprint. These trends highlight the potential negative repercussions for Thailand’s tourism industry. The outcomes from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag analysis align with the results from the Toda and Yamamoto causality test.

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