중국의 산업집적과 경제성장 간순환누적 효과에 관한 연구 — 2007-2018년 현급 패널 데이터를 중심으로
A Study of Cyclical Cumulative Effects between Chinese Industrial Agglomeration and Economic Growth ― Based on 2007-2018 County Panel Data of China
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구는 중국 현급 수준에서의 2차 산업의 집적과 경제성장 사이의 양방향 영향관계를 연구대상으로 패널 연립방정식 모델을 구축하여 중국의 산업집적과 경제성장 간 순환누적효과의 존재 여부와 동태적 및 이질적 특징을 분석하였다. 연구 결과, 중국의 산업집적과 경제성장 사이에는 유의미한 양방향 촉진 관계가 존재한다. 또한 “산업집적 -> 경제성장 -> 산업집적”과 “경제성장 -> 산업집적 -> 경제성장”이라는 두 가지 경로를 기반으로 산업집적과 경제성장은 각자 순환누적효과도 모두 유의미하게 나왔다. 동태적 측면에서 볼 때, 2007-2013년에 비하여, 2014-2018년 산업집적 주기성 영향하의 집적의 누적효과는 점차 약화되었으며 확산효과의 출현과 함께 산업집적이 중국 경제성장의 순환누적과정에서 일으키는 역할도 줄어들었다. 이 외, 중국의 경제발전 수준이 다른 지역의 누적효과 또한 서로 다른 이질적 특징을 나타냈다. 경제발전 수준이 낮은 현·시에서 산업집적의 경제성장에 대한 순환누적효과가 유의미하게 나타난 반면 일부 경제발전 수준이 높은 현·시에서 산업의 동형화와 구조 고도화 수요로 인하여 산업집적의 누적효과가 약화되었고 “혼잡 효과” 또한 경제 성장의 순환누적효과를 지속적으로 낮아지게 했다.
Abstract
In this paper, we take the mutual influences between the secondary industry agglomeration and economic growth in China’s county level as the research object. The panel data simultaneous equations models are specified to analyze the existence and change characteristics of the cyclical cumulative effects of industrial agglomeration and economic growth. The results show that industrial agglomeration and economic growth not only have a significant two-way relationship, but also they achieve their own cyclical cumulative effect based on the paths of “industrial agglomeration-economic growth-industrial agglomeration” and “economic growth-industrial agglomeration-economic growth” respectively. In terms of dynamics, compared to 2007~2013, the cumulative effect of agglomeration under the periodic impact of industrial agglomeration in 2014~2018 is weakened. The increasing diffusion effect leads to the decline of the role of industrial agglomeration in the economic growth cycle accumulation. In addition, the cumulative effects of different regions show heterogeneity characteristics. The cyclical cumulative effects of industrial agglomeration and economic growth are more significant in underdeveloped counties. In some economically developed counties, however, the industry isomorphism and the demand for the upgrading of industrial structure make the cumulative effect of industrial agglomeration become weak, and the crowding effect also makes the cumulative effect of economic growth decrease.
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