사과 SPS 수입금지 조치 해제의 경제적 효과 실증분석: 가격 격차(price-wedge) 방법론의 적용
The Economic effect of End to the Import Ban of Apples SPS: Application of Price-wedge Method
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초록
최근 환태평양경제동반자협정이 타결됨에 따라 여타 메가 FTA에 대한 논의도 급물살을 탈 것으로 예상된다. 메가 FTA에는 무역규범관련 이슈를 논의한다는 점에서 양자 FTA와는 차별화된 접근법이 필요하다. 농업부문에서는 동식물검역 규정이 중요한 무역규범이다. 본 연구는 동식물 검역조치의 경제적 효과, 특히 수입실적이 전무한 품목의 수입금지 조치 해제 시 사전영향평가 방법론을 제안하는데 있다. 국산선호도를 반영한 가격격차 접근법에 적용하여 사과를 대상으로 사례연구를 수행하였다. 사과의 예상수입량은 우리나라 소비자의 국산선호 정도에 따라 상이하게 나타났으며, 국산사과를 선호할수록 사과 부문 및 전체 농업분야의 생산 감소효과는 미미한 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구는 메가 FTA 협상에서 우리의 가입비용을 최소화할 수 있는 전략의 기초마련과 정부의 통상정책에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.
Abstract
With the recent conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), other mega- FTAs are expected to be discussed in the near future. Since mega-FTAs discuss issues related to trade rules, approaches different from those to bilateral FTAs are necessary. In the agricultural sector, animal and plant quarantine regulations are a major trade rule. This study aims at presenting a practicable methodology to estimate economic effects of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), particularly to analyze the effects of lifting an import ban on items that have not been imported. We applied the price gap approach that reflects home-good preference, and carried out a case study about apples. The results show that expected imports of apples depend on the degree of Korean consumers’ preference for domestic products. The more domestic apples are preferred, the less lifting the import ban will bring production reduction effects on apples and the overall agricultural sector. This study is expected to be used in researching basic analysis methods of strategies that can minimize Korea’s membership fee in mega-FTA negotiations, and to contribute to the trade authorities’ policy-making.
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