청소년비행 발달궤적의 다양한 유형
The Role of Heterogeneity in the Developmental Trajectory of Adolescent Delinquency
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초록
본 연구의 목적은 준모수적 집단중심모형(semi-parametric group-based modeling)을 사용하여 청소년비행의 다양한 발달궤적을 분석하는 것이다. 한국청소년패널조사의 중2패널 5개년 자료를 이용하여 분석한 결과, 우리나라 청소년비행에는 5가지 형태의 상이한 발달궤적-만성형 비행청소년, 저비행 지속형 비행청소년, 중단형 비행청소년, 후발형 비행청소년, 무비행청소년-이 존재하는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 다음으로 어떤 생태체계적 요인이 비행의 발달궤적 유형에 영향을 미치는지 살펴본 결과, 공격성과 충동성이 높고 학교애착이 낮으며 비행또래집단과 어울리는 청소년의 경우 무비행형 집단에 비해 저비행 지속형, 중단형, 만성형 비행집단이 될 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 13세에 이미 비행을 저지른 청소년들 중에서 상대적으로 공격성이 낮고 부모의 지도감독이 높으며 비행또래집단과 어울리지 않고 학업성취가 높을 경우 만성형 비행집단에 비해 16세 이후 비행에서 벗어나는 중단형 비행집단이 될 확률이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 본 연구결과는 청소년의 상이한 발달궤적에 따른 맞춤형 비행예방 또는 탈비행 프로그램 개발에 적극적으로 활용될 수 있는 청소년복지 실천지침을 제공한다.
Abstract
Previous research has shown heterogeneity in delinquency trajectories. Using data from waves 1-5(2003-2007) of the Korea Youth Panel Survey, this study seeks to identify different adolescent delinquency trajectories and their predictors. Semi- parametric group-based modeling (SGM) identified five different developmental trajectories of delinquency: non-offender, late on-setter, low-level continuous, desister, and chronic groups. Multinomial logistic regressions were then employed to examine predictors that distinguish these five groups. Our results indicated that other delinquency groups were distinguished from non-offenders by aggression, impulsivity, antisocial peer group, and low school attachment. Among youths who were already delinquent by age 13, chronics were distinguished from desisters by aggression, poor family management, antisocial peer group, and low academic achievement. Implications for preventive interventions for juvenile delinquency in Korea are also discussed.
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