应急管理能力评价的知识图谱分析与趋势展望 ——基于CiteSpace工具的文献对比实证研究
Knowledge Graph Analysis and Prospects of Emergency Management Capacity Evaluation : A Comparative Empirical Study Based on CiteSpace on the CiteSpace Tool
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为破解应急管理能力评价领域研究碎片化、分散化难题，明晰其知识结构与发展规 律，本文以2002—2025年中国知网（CNKI）351篇中文文献及Web of Science（WOS）76篇 英文文献为研究样本，运用CiteSpace工具开展知识图谱分析。研究表明，文献产出层 面，中国发文量呈阶段性爆发增长（2023年达峰值41篇），核心作者以吴浩（24篇）、武 潭（20篇）为代表，但学术合作网络整体分散；国际发文量规模较小，却形成关联更紧密 的关键词共现网络（密度0.0226，高于国内0.0099）。研究热点上，中国构建“理论-体 系-方法-多场景”成熟研究网络，聚焦安全生产、化工园区等细分场景，及熵权法、云模 型等多元量化方法创新；国际侧重评价模型构建、应急疏散场景研究，以层次分析法（AH P）等经典方法应用为核心。未来该领域将向智能化技术深度融合、场景精准拓展、多主 体协同治理升级方向演进。本文为领域研究方向优化与应急管理能力评价政策制定提供数据支撑，助力应急管理体系现代化建设。
Abstract
To address the problems of fragmentation and decentralization in the research on emergency management capacity evaluation and clarify its knowledge structure and development laws, this study takes 351 Chinese literatures from CNKI and 76 English literatures from WOS published between 2002 and 2025 as research samples, and conducts knowledge graph analysis using the CiteSpace tool. The research shows that in terms of literature output, the number of domestic publications presents a phased explosive growth (reaching a peak of 41 in 2023), with core authors represented by Wu Hao (24 publications) and Wu Tan (20 publications), but the academic cooperation network is generally decentralized; the number of foreign publications is relatively small, yet a more closely connected keyword co-occurrence network has been formed. In terms of research hotspots, China has constructed a mature research network, focusing on segmented scenarios such as safe production and chemical parks, as well as innovations in diverse quantitative methods including the Entropy Weight Method and Cloud Model; foreign research focuses on the construction of evaluation models and research on emergency evacuation scenarios, with the application of classic methods such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) as the core. In the future, this field will evolve towards the in-depth integration of intelligent technologies, precise expansion of scenarios, and upgrading of multi-agent collaborative governance. This study provides data support for optimizing research directions in the field and formulating policies for emergency management capacity evaluation, contributing to the modernization of the emergency management system.