환율 고평가 척도의 모색: 아시아 외환위기를 중심으로
In Search for a Measure of Currency Misalignment: the Case of the 1997 Asian Currency Crisis
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The paper searches for an appropriate measure of currency misalignment in light of the 1997 Asian currency crisis. A couple of measures of currency misalignment, one based on purchasing power parity and the other based on equilibrium real exchange rate that is consistent with internal and external equilibrium are used to estimate the degree of currency misalignment for Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 currency crisis. The paper finds that the purchasing power parity based methods show that the Asian currencies were not significantly overvalued on the eve of the crisis. On the other hand, measures based on the equilibrium real exchange rate concept demonstrate that the Asian currencies were significantly overvalued. In consequence, the equilibrium real exchange rate based method seems to be a useful candidate for a measure of currency misalignment.
Abstract
The paper searches for an appropriate measure of currency misalignment in light of the 1997 Asian currency crisis. A couple of measures of currency misalignment, one based on purchasing power parity and the other based on equilibrium real exchange rate that is consistent with internal and external equilibrium are used to estimate the degree of currency misalignment for Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand before the 1997 currency crisis. The paper finds that the purchasing power parity based methods show that the Asian currencies were not significantly overvalued on the eve of the crisis. On the other hand, measures based on the equilibrium real exchange rate concept demonstrate that the Asian currencies were significantly overvalued. In consequence, the equilibrium real exchange rate based method seems to be a useful candidate for a measure of currency misalignment.