Optimal Growth and Borrowing with Non-convex Technology
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초록
본 논문은 시제간 최적화 모형을 적용하여 생산기술이 비볼록일 경우 중간재를 수입하는 개방경제의 최적의 성장과 차입에 대한 분석을 하였다. 기존 문헌에 있는 논문들과 비교할 때, 본 논문은 개방경제의 경우 최적의 경제성장 경로는 단 하나뿐이며 그 최적 경제성장 경로는 자본ㆍ노동 비율이 가장 높은 균제상태로 이끄는 경로인 것을 보여주고 있다. 그러므로 낮은 자본집약도 구간에 놓인 경제는 안정적인 경로 대신에 국지적으로 불안정적인 경로를 택함으로써 장기적으로 더 높은 경제성장을 이룰 수 있다. 투자의 한계기회비용을 높게 함으로써 장기적으로 더 높은 생산을 달성할 수 있다. 순채무국가는 절대로 채권국가가 될 수 없다. 예상치 못한 영구적인 교역조건 악화가 발생할 경우 투자는 감소하고 경상수지는 개선된다.
Abstract
This paper employs a simple intertemporal optimization model to analyze the optimal growth and borrowing for a small open economy with non‐convex technology that imports intermediate inputs for production. Unlike other papers in the literature, this paper concludes that there is only one path for an open economy to achieve optimal growth: namely, the pursuit of the highest possible steady-state capital-labor ratio. Thus, a country in a region of low capital intensity can achieve high long run economic growth by putting itself on a locally unstable path. By setting a high marginal opportunity cost of investment, a country can achieve higher long run output. An economy cannot become a creditor if it starts as a net debtor. Moreover, if an unanticipated permanent deterioration in the terms of trade occurs, the economy should decrease investments in order to improve its current accounts.
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