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OPTIMAL GROWTH AND THE BEHAVIOR OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT UNDER AN ENDOGENOUS TIME PREFERENCE RATE

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초록

Unlike previous literature where investment is often ignored because the dynamic behavior of the economy is complex due to investment, this paper discusses optimal growth and the current account behavior for a small open economy which imports an intermediate input for production under an endogenous time preference rate as in Uzawa (1968). This paper finds that if the economy behaves optimally, stages in the balance of payments, that is, an economy transforming from a net debtor to a net creditor, exist if the economy is sufficiently patient compared to the rest of the world. If the economy experiences permanent deteriorations in terms-of-trade, the current account improves as the economy tries to maintain the initial consumption under the endogenous time preference rate. The level of savings has to rise sufficiently to enable the economy to lend to the world capital market to earn interest and thereby increasing the level of consumption. For temporary deteriorations in terms-of-trade, the current account improves initially but deteriorates later as investment accelerates to maintain the original level of capital stock.

Abstract

Unlike previous literature where investment is often ignored because the dynamic behavior of the economy is complex due to investment, this paper discusses optimal growth and the current account behavior for a small open economy which imports an intermediate input for production under an endogenous time preference rate as in Uzawa (1968). This paper finds that if the economy behaves optimally, stages in the balance of payments, that is, an economy transforming from a net debtor to a net creditor, exist if the economy is sufficiently patient compared to the rest of the world. If the economy experiences permanent deteriorations in terms-of-trade, the current account improves as the economy tries to maintain the initial consumption under the endogenous time preference rate. The level of savings has to rise sufficiently to enable the economy to lend to the world capital market to earn interest and thereby increasing the level of consumption. For temporary deteriorations in terms-of-trade, the current account improves initially but deteriorates later as investment accelerates to maintain the original level of capital stock.

참고문헌 (11)

  1. Abel, A., "An intertemporal model of saving and investment", Econometrica, 51, pp.675~692 (1983)
  2. Arrow, K., "Public Investment, the Rate of Return and Optimal Fiscal Policy" (1970), The Johns Hopkins Press
  3. Bazdarich, M., "Optimal growth and stages in the balance of payments", Journal of International Economics, 8, pp.425~443 (1978)
  4. Epstein, Larry G., "The rate of time preference and dynamic economic analysis", Journal of Political Economy, 91, pp.611~635 (1983)
  5. Matsuyama, K., "“Current account dynamics in a finite horizon model", Journal of International Economics, 23, pp.299~313 (1987)
  6. Obstfeld, M., "Intermediate imports, the terms of trade and the dynamics of the exchange rate and the current account", Journal of International Economics, 10, pp.461~480 (1980)
  7. Obstfeld, M., "Aggregate spending and the terms of trade: is there a Laursen Metzler effect?", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 97, pp.251~270 (1982)
  8. Obstfeld, M., "Intertemporal price speculation and the optimal current account deficit", Journal of Internal Money and Finance, 2, pp.135~146 (1983)
  9. Pitchford, John D., "Optimum borrowing and the current account when there are fluctuations in income", Journal of International Economics, 26(3), pp.345~358 (1989)
  10. Singh, T., "Intertemporal optimizing models of trade and current account balance: A Survey", Journal of Economic Surveys, 21(1), pp.25~40 (2007)
  11. Uzawa, H., "Time preference, the consumption function, and optimum asset holdings, In Value, capital growth: papers in honour of John Hicks" (1968), Edinburgh University Press

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