지역내 국가의 자본유출이 자국의 교역조건과 실질환율에 미치는 영향: 동아시아지역을 대상으로
The Effects of Capital Outflows from Neighboring Countries on a Home Country’s Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate: The Case of East Asia
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1990년대 수차례의 통화위기를 겪은 후 통화위기가 지역적으로 집중되고 전염성이 있다는 연구가 깊이 진행되어왔으나 그 메커니즘에 대한 구체적인 연구는 부족한 편이다. 본 논문에서 2국 2기간 모형을 만들어 무역상대국의 자본유출이 자국의 교역조건을 악화시켜 실질환율을 절하시킬 가능성이 있음을 이론적으로 도출하였다. 특히 동아시아국가 중 한국, 태국, 싱가포르를 대상으로 하여 지역국가들에서 자본유출이 있었을 경우 자국의 교역조건 자본이동, 실질환율이 어떻게 반응하는가를 분석하고자 하였다. 이를 위해서 실증분석방법으로 벡터자기회귀모형의 충격반응분석과 분산분해 등을 이용한 결과 이와 같은 영향이 실제로도 작용하였음을 확인하였다. 따라서 지역내 국가의 자본유출이 자국의 통화위기를 항상 불러일으킨다고 말할 수는 없지만 특정시기에 통화위기의 가능성을 커지게 할 수 있다는 점을 알 수 있었다.
Abstract
While there is an extensive body of empirical analyses showing that currency crises tend to be regionally concentrated to specific areas and contagious to countries with high levels of trade, there has been insufficient research on the mechanisms underlying such tendencies. Using a two‐country model, we investigate the possibility of deterioration in the terms of trade and a rise in the real exchange rate of a home country in the case of capital outflows from its trade partner. In addition, an empirical analysis of East Asian countries conclusively shows that some countries conform to the model. Generally, neighboring countries trade extensively with one another for reasons like low logistics costs. This paper finds that such patterns of trade can be one reason for a currency crisis being regional.
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