기술적 비대칭적 국가간 특혜무역협정의 안정적 균형조건 분석
The Stable Equilibrium of Preferential Trade Agreements under Technology Asymmetry
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본 논문은 최근 WTO를 중심으로 한 다자간 무역체제를 대체할 정도로 급속히 확산되고있는 특혜무역협정의 사회후생효과를 기술적 비대칭성을 보이고 있는 국가에 초점을 맞추어 분석하였다. 기술적 비대칭성을 보이는 다수의 국가간 특혜무역협정이 형성될 경우, 꾸르노 경쟁모형을 이용한 정태적 분석을 통하여 특혜무역협정이 무역자유화의 확산을 가져오는 관세상보효과를 확인하였다. 또한 기술적 우위를 보이는 선진국의 경우보다 많은 다수의 국가와 특혜무역협정을 체결하는 것이 최적인 반면, 기술후진국의 경우 특혜무역협정이 반드시 사회후생의 개선을 보장하지는 않음을 확인하였다. 또한 동태적 분석을 통해, 기술후진국은 기술격차가 커질수록 기술선진국과의 특혜무역협정을 유지할 유인이 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 기술 비대칭성이 존재하는 상황에서 안정적 특혜무역협정의 유지를 위해서는 기술이전 등 보다 전략적인 무역정책조정 메커니즘이 필요함이 확인되었다.
Abstract
This paper examines the optimal policy for trade negotiation in the current multilateral and preferential trade regime. Using a four country oligopoly model with asymmetric technology, we examine the implication of preferential trade agreement on tariff and welfare. We find any preferential trade agreement has a tariff complementarity effect. Social welfare of the more efficient country is also higher with more cooperative trade negotiation regime. However, for technically inefficient country, the cooperative trade policy does not always guarantee to improve the social welfare when the technology difference is large or the global free trade is not feasible. Under large technology difference, we show that South-South FTAs is an optimal alternative policy for the inefficient countries and is more sustainable.
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