Analysis of Dollarization Hysteresis among North Korean Consumers
2
조회
0
다운로드
0
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea’s de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.
Abstract
This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea’s de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis.
참고문헌 (27)
- AP, "Burma Demonetizes 80 Percent of Currency", Journal of Commerce (1987)
- To Dollarize or De-dollarize: Consequences for Monetary Policy, "Alvarez-Plata, P.", Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, ~, pp.Working Papers, no.0808 (2008)
- Dollarization in Cambodia: Causes and Policy Implications, "Braiton, Nombulelo", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper, no. WP 2011 (2011), 049
- Currency substitution in developing countries: an introduction, "Calvo, G.", International Monetary Fund, ~, pp.IMF Working Paper, no. WP 1992 (1992), 040
- Craig, B., "ollarization and Currency Exchange", Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(4), pp.671~689 (2004)
- [URL]
- Dean-Leung, S., "Vietnam in the 1980s: price reforms and stabilization", BNL Quarterly Review, 49(197), pp.187~207 (1996)
- Engineer, M, "Currency transactions costs and competing fiat currencies", Journal of International Economics, 52(1), pp.113~136 (2000)
- Feige, E., "The Dollarization Debate" (2002), Oxford University Press
- "North Korea’s monetary reform through international comparisons" (2010)[URL]
- 김석진, "최근 북한경제 연구 현황과 과제", 통일과 평화, 11(1), pp.33~78 (2019), 통일평화연구원[DOI]
- "Kyeong-Je-Yeon-Gu", 2014, 61~99, pp.Science Encyclopedia Comprehensive Publishing House
- Evaluation of North Korea’s Recent Economic Policy and Future Prospects, "Lee, J. -K", Korea Development Institute, ~, pp.Policy Study Series, no. 2016-08 (2016)
- Study of Informal Finance in North Korea, with Analysis and Evaluation, "Lee, J. -Y.", Bank of Korea, ~, pp.BOK Working Paper, no.2020-16 (2020)
- Analysis of North Korea’s Foreign Currency Use, "Lee, S. -K.", Korea Institute for Industrial Economic &Trade, ~, pp.KIET Research Papers, no. 2012-653 (2012)
- Levy-Yeyati, E, "Financial Dollarization: Evaluating the Consequences", Economic Policy, 21(45), pp.61~118 (2006)
- Mas, I, "Things Governments Do to Money: A Recent History of Currency Reform Schemes and Scams", Kyklos, 48(4), pp.483~512 (1995)
- Melvin, M., "Dollarization in Developing Countries: Rational Remedy or Domestic Dilemma?", Contemporary Economic Policy, 14(3), pp.30~40 (1996)
- Mun, S. -M., "Export-Import Bank of Korea. North Korean Financial System and Its Challenges", pp.17~67 (2016), Oruem
- 문성민, "Dollarization in North Korea: Evidence from a Survey of North Korean Refugees", East Asian Economic Review, 21(1), pp.81~100 (2017), 대외경제정책연구원[DOI]
- (2008)[URL]
- Examples of North Koreans’ Use of Telephone Money, "Son, K. -S", KB Research, ~, pp.KB Studies of North Korea, no. 2020-08 (2020)
- Uribe, M, "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution", Journal of Monetary Economics, 40(1), pp.185~202 (1997)
- Valev, N. T, "The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities", Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(2), pp.224~235 (2010)
- Yang, M. -S, "Export-Import Bank of Korea. North Korean Financial System and Its Challenges", pp.113~142 (2016), Oruem
- 장형수, "북한의 외화수급 추정과 분석: 1991~2012년", 통일정책연구, 22(2), pp.165~190 (2013), 통일연구원
- 장형수, "북한의 외화수급 및 외화보유액 추정과 북·미 비핵화 협상에 대한 시사점", 현대북한연구, 22(1), pp.8~43 (2019), 심연북한연구소[DOI]