A Model for Projecting the Number of Doctors in South Korea
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This paper develops a new model for forecasting potential shortfalls in the healthcare sector, providing an economically grounded framework for projections. The model is applied to assess potential doctor shortages in South Korea over the next decade under reasonable economic scenarios. Our analysis indicates that demand for healthcare, driven by aging-related factors, is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3% to 1.9%. In contrast, the supply of healthcare—bolstered by technological advancements, improved medical equipment, and natural growth in the doctor workforce—is expected to increase by 3.2% annually. These findings suggest that South Korea’s healthcare system is likely to meet future demand without necessitating an expansion of medical school admissions.
Abstract
This paper develops a new model for forecasting potential shortfalls in the healthcare sector, providing an economically grounded framework for projections. The model is applied to assess potential doctor shortages in South Korea over the next decade under reasonable economic scenarios. Our analysis indicates that demand for healthcare, driven by aging-related factors, is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.3% to 1.9%. In contrast, the supply of healthcare—bolstered by technological advancements, improved medical equipment, and natural growth in the doctor workforce—is expected to increase by 3.2% annually. These findings suggest that South Korea’s healthcare system is likely to meet future demand without necessitating an expansion of medical school admissions.