기업의 신용등급이 자본구조에 미치는 영향
The Effects of Credit Ratings on Capital Structure of Firms
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본 연구는 1997년 1월 1일부터 2009년 12월 31일까지 한국거래소의 유가증권시장에 상장된 기업을 대상으로 신용등급이 자본구조에 미치는 영향을 실증분석 하였으며, 중요한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 플러스(+) 또는 마이너스(-) 노치등급기업은 신용등급 상승 또는 하락과 같은 신용등급 변화가 임박해 있으므로, 플러스(+) 노치등급기업은 향후 신용등급 상승에 따른 효익을 증가시키고, 마이너스(-) 노치등급기업은 신용등급 하락에 따른 비용을 예방하기 위해, 순부채발행을 모두 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 또한, 노치등급별로 상위 1/3 또는 하위 1/3 신용평점기업은 신용등급 상승 또는 하락과 같은 신용등급 변화가 더욱 임박해 있으므로, 상위 1/3 신용평점기업은 향후 신용등급 상승에 따른 효익을 증가시키고, 하위 1/3 신용평점기업은 신용등급 하락에 따른 비용을 예방하기 위해, 순부채발행을 더욱 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 투기등급에서 투자등급으로 신용등급 상승이 임박한 투기등급기업은 향후 신용등급 상승에 따른 효익을 증가시키고, 투자등급에서 투기등급으로 신용등급 하락이 임박한 투자등급기업은 향후 신용등급 하락에 따른 비용을 예방하기 위해, 순부채발행을 모두 감소시키는 것으로 나타났다. 나아가, 신용등급과 자본구조 가설은 상충이론과 자금조달순서이론 하에서도 성립하는 것으로 나타났다. 따라서 기업 경영자들은 상충이론과 자금조달순서이론에 관한 전통적인 변수들뿐만 아니라 신용등급을 새로운 자본구조변수로 인식하여, 부채발행, 주식발행, 목표 레버리지 결정 등에 활용하는 것으로 판단된다.
Abstract
This paper analyses empirically the effects of credit ratings on capital structure of firms listed on Korea Exchange. The main results of this study can be summarized as follows. Firms near either a plus(+) or minus(-) notch ratings will issue less debt on average than firms with a zero(0) notch ratings, because the former have more acute proximity to either a ratings upgrade or downgrade than the latter. Firms near a plus(+) notch ratings that are near an upgrade may choose to issue equity instead of debt in order to obtain the benefit of a higher rating, and firms near a minus(-) notch ratings that are near a downgrade may issue less debt in order to prevent the extra costs that result from a downgrade. Firms near either a plus(+) or minus(-) notch ratings will issue less debt on average than firms with a zero(0) notch ratings. The high thirds and low thirds firms within each plus(+) or minus(-) notch ratings will issue less debt on average than firms with the middle thirds firms, because the former have more acute proximity to either a ratings upgrade or downgrade than the latter. The high thirds firms near an upgrade may choose to issue equity instead of debt in order to obtain the benefit of a higher rating, and the low thirds firms near an downgrade may issue less debt in order to prevent the extra costs that result from a downgrade. The investment grade firms that are near an downgrade to speculative grade may issue less debt in order to prevent the extra costs that result from a downgrade, and the speculative grade that are near an upgrade to investment grade may choose to issue equity instead of debt in order to obtain the benefit of a higher grade. The effect between credit ratings and capital structure persist significantly in the context of tradeoff theory and pecking order theory.
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