금융위기가 배당정책에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구
The Study of the Impacts of the Global Financial Crisis on Dividend Policy
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본 연구에서는 글로벌 금융위기 이후로 기업의 배당정책 변화를 실증분석을 통해 살펴보았다. 특히 다양한 배당지급 결정요인들이 글로벌 금융위기를 전후하여 의미 있는 변화가 존재하는지 검증하여보았다. 현재 한국증권거래소에 상장된 기업 중 459개 기업을 선정하여 2010년을 제외한 2002년부터 2018년까지 총 16년간의 자료를 이용하였다. 본 연구의 실증분석 연구결과에 의하면 금융위기 이후 배당성향(DV/E)을 결정하는 내부주주지분율(IOWN), 수익성(PROFIT)의 영향은 감소하였고, 잉여현금흐름(FCF), 기업규모(SIZE), 위험(RISK), 부채비율(LEV), 가치(M/B)의 영향은 증가하였다. 이는 금융위기 이전 기업들은 가치 증대를 위해 선택적인 대리인비용 감소 및 시장과의 소통 (정보신호효과) 등의 요인이 배당정책 결정에 영향을 미쳤다면, 금융위기 이후 기업들은 기업의 생사에 필수적인 재무안정성, 미래수익성이 배당에 더욱 중요하게 작용하고 있음을 시사한다. 결론적으로 국내기업의 배당정책은 기존의 연구에서 제시하였던 대리인문제나 정보비대칭요소 같은 기업의 미시적 요인보다는 오히려 국내 거시경제환경의 변화에 따라 더 민감하게 반응하는 것으로 보여진다.
Abstract
In this article, we investigate the impact of the global financial crisis(GFC) on corporate dividend policies in Korean listed firms. Specifically, we examine whether determinants of dividend payout policy have changed after the GFC. For this purpose, we obtain the sample of 459 listed firms in Korea during the period between 2002 and 2010. We find that the explanatory powers of inside ownership(IOWN) and profit(PROFIT), which are determinant factors of dividend payout ration(DV/E), have decreased while free cash flows(FCF), size(SIZE), risk(RISK), leverage(LEV), and value(M/B) have increased in the post-crisis era. These key findings imply that, in the pre-crisis era, firms used dividends as a method of reducing agency costs and of communicating with the market (signalling effect). In the post-crisis era, however, the financial stability and the future profitability, which are essential for firm's life and death, are more crucial to determine the dividend policy. Consequently, the dividend policy of Korean firms responds more sensitively to macroeconomic environments than firm's micro factors like agency costs and/or information asymmetry as suggested in the prior studies.
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