풍력예보를 위한 단순 앙상블예측시스템의 예측성 향상
Improvement of a Simple Ensemble Prediction System for Wind Power Forecasting
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Improvement of a simple and practical Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) based on multi-models for wind powerforecasting was performed by optimizing various ensemble member combinations. Three types of ensemble methods were compared;multi-models, multi-physics and hybrid ensemble. Multi-models were composed of four different numerical weather predictionmodels; WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW with small and large domains, UM-RDAPS and WW3. WRF-ARW was also used in multi-physicsby designing two different planetary boundary layer and surface layer scheme, respectively. As a result, simulated wind speed fromthe multi-models EPS showed smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) and a higher spread (SPRD) than those of the multi-physicsEPS. Among the five different multi-models, three models such as KIER1, KIER2 and KMA-WW3 were reliable in terms of RMSEand correlation coefficient (CORR) for all typhoon cases. Therefore, a new EPS constructed by simple averaging the wind speedstaken from the three models. The new EPS showed a higher correlation and agreement with a value of 1.4% and 2.1% compared tothose in old EPS, respectively.
Abstract
Improvement of a simple and practical Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) based on multi-models for wind powerforecasting was performed by optimizing various ensemble member combinations. Three types of ensemble methods were compared;multi-models, multi-physics and hybrid ensemble. Multi-models were composed of four different numerical weather predictionmodels; WRF-NMM, WRF-ARW with small and large domains, UM-RDAPS and WW3. WRF-ARW was also used in multi-physicsby designing two different planetary boundary layer and surface layer scheme, respectively. As a result, simulated wind speed fromthe multi-models EPS showed smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) and a higher spread (SPRD) than those of the multi-physicsEPS. Among the five different multi-models, three models such as KIER1, KIER2 and KMA-WW3 were reliable in terms of RMSEand correlation coefficient (CORR) for all typhoon cases. Therefore, a new EPS constructed by simple averaging the wind speedstaken from the three models. The new EPS showed a higher correlation and agreement with a value of 1.4% and 2.1% compared tothose in old EPS, respectively.
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