날씨가 자전거 이용에 미치는 영향 분석 - 고양시 공공자전거를 대상으로 -

Abstract

The bicycle is an eco-friendly means of transportation because it does not emit pollutants, and it promotes the health of the user by increasing his or her physical activity. Thus, many countries are continuously trying to promote bicycle usage. However, despite efforts to promote bicycle usage, the share of bicycle transportation in the total transportation of Korea is as low as 2%. Increase in bicycle use requires the establishment and implementation of efficient bicycle promotion policies. For these to happen, diverse factors that influence bicycle usage must be analyzed in detail. In this study, the effects of weather, which is known as one of the factors that most influence bicycle usage, were examined with bike sharing usage data over a long period. The results were analyzed with variables such as holidays and bike sharing members. The analysis results showed that bicycle usage decreased with a temperature increase or decrease. The optimum temperature of bicycle use is 23℃. Precipitation had a negative effect; i.e., bicycle usage decreased 60% with 10cm rainfall. Cloudiness also negatively affected bicycle usage. The analysis results with the variables such as holidays and bike sharing members showed that the weather variables influenced the bicycle usage by case. In particular, in the case of rainfall on a weekday, a non-bike-sharing member was 4.42 times more unlikely to use a bicycle than a bike-sharing member. According to the results of this study, although weather cannot be controlled, it is expected that relevant facilities can be developed and constructed to mitigate or eliminate the effects of weather on bicycle usage. The results of this study are also expected to be useful in estimating the bicycle usage demand, as well as benefits and costs, for policy making.