일본 무당파 투표자의 정당선택 - 2009년과 2012년 총선 비교 -

Abstract

This paper is to analysis comparatively indepnendent voters of the 2009 and 2012 japanesegeneral elections. And this study divided them into the three groups who each voted for the Liberal Democratic Party(LDP), Democratic Party of Japan(DPJ), andthe other parties.Looking at the results of the analysis, DPJ’s sweeping victory in the 2009 general election resulted from the overwhelming support by 54 percent of the independents with a strong favorable impression of DPJ and a storng antipathy to LDP. The independents voting for LDP, had a strong antipathy to DPJ. The independents voting for other political parties, had not any constant features in the political inclinations and policies propensity. By the way, in the 2012 general election, the independents voting for DPJ did not have antipathy against LDP. But the independents voting for LDP had an antipathy to DPJ and had no consistency in the other political tendencies. About 63 percent of total independents voting for other political parties, had no commonality in political propensity except their antipathy to Prime Minister Noda. Unlike two other independent groups, they had been focused on several policy issues. From these results, it become prominent that the feelings of the political parties is an important determining factor than anything else. Also, if any antipathy or favorable impression to a political party has not been builted, the evaluation of the key policies is going to be the next determining factor.