본문 바로가기
KERD
논문KCI 등재

Bi-directional Relationships between Exports and Growth: A Panel Cointegration Analysis

2

조회

0

다운로드

1

인용

0

참고문헌

키워드

주제분류경제학

초록

This paper explores the relationship between international trade and economic growth, employing cutting-edge panel cointegration testing and estimation techniques. Annual panel data on 81 countries' macroeconomic variables over the period 1960-2003 are exploited in empirical analysis. Various panel unit root tests demonstrate that the data variables are integrated processes with unit roots. Three distinct panel cointegration techniques are used to estimate the regression equation. A positive bi-directional interactive relationship between exports and output growth is found and the positive impact of output on exports is a bit stronger than the reverse. The positive association between investment share and exports and the negative correlation between labor and exports are confirmed. The exports of high income, high export, and high investment countries seem to have somewhat larger output enhancement effects than those of low income, low export, and low investment nations. Several elucidations and policy implications are provided for the above findings.

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between international trade and economic growth, employing cutting-edge panel cointegration testing and estimation techniques. Annual panel data on 81 countries' macroeconomic variables over the period 1960-2003 are exploited in empirical analysis. Various panel unit root tests demonstrate that the data variables are integrated processes with unit roots. Three distinct panel cointegration techniques are used to estimate the regression equation. A positive bi-directional interactive relationship between exports and output growth is found and the positive impact of output on exports is a bit stronger than the reverse. The positive association between investment share and exports and the negative correlation between labor and exports are confirmed. The exports of high income, high export, and high investment countries seem to have somewhat larger output enhancement effects than those of low income, low export, and low investment nations. Several elucidations and policy implications are provided for the above findings.

참고문헌 (73)

  1. "Is the monetary model useful in explaining exchange rates? - Panel cointegration evidence", 14(2), pp.169~182 (2001)
  2. "The export skill content, learning by exporting and economic growth", 84, pp.29~34 (2004)
  3. "and causality in LDCs Journal of Development Economics", pp.405~415 (1991)
  4. "Incremental trade policy and endogenous growth: a q-theory approach", 23, pp.797~822 (1999)
  5. "Econometric Analysis of Panel Data" (2005), New York: John Wiley
  6. "Nonstationary panels, cointegration in panels, and dynamic panels: a survey", 15, pp.7~52 (2000), Amsterdam: JAI Press
  7. "Panel data unit roots and cointegration: an overview", 61(4), pp.607~629 (1999)
  8. "R\&D spillovers and global growth", 47, pp.399~428 (1999)
  9. "Trade liberalization and income convergence: a comment", 55, pp.229~234 (2001)
  10. "Free trade, growth, and convergence", pp.143~170 (1998)
  11. "Human capital and technology diffusion", 1A, pp.935~966 (2005), Amsterdam: Elsevier(North-Holland)
  12. "The relationship between international trade and economic growth in Mexico", 8(1), pp.1~21 (1997)
  13. "The local power of some unit root tests for panel data", 15, pp.161~178 (2000), Amsterdam: JAI Press
  14. "Trade and endogenous growth with Ricardo-Viner production technology", 74(224), pp.15~23 (1998)
  15. "Unit root tests for panel data", 20(2), pp.249~272 (2001)
  16. "International R\&D spillovers", 39, pp.859~887 (1995)
  17. "The dual nature of trade measuring its impact on imitation and growth", 72, pp.31~55 (2003)
  18. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests", 73, pp.55~74 (2004)
  19. "Learning by exporting and structural change A Ramsey growth model of Thailand", 28, pp.293~306 (2006)
  20. "Some panel cointegration models of international R\&D spillovers", 23, pp.241~260 (2001)
  21. "a study of imperialism of trade" (1972)
  22. "Random walks with drifts: Nonsense regression and spurious fixed-effect estimation", 80, pp.287~296 (1997)
  23. "Statistical Methods for Research Workers" (1932)
  24. "Does trade cause growth?", 89(3), pp.379~399 (1999)
  25. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results Part 1" (2000), University of Victoria
  26. "Trade, Growth, and Welfare Linkages in North America: an empirical analysis", 6(2), pp.189~201 (1995)
  27. "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics Journal of Econometrics", pp.111~120 (1974)
  28. "Trade liberalization and growth in developing countries", 67, pp.229~244 (2002)
  29. "Exports, inflation and growth", 27, pp.1031~1057 (1999)
  30. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data", 3(2), pp.148~161 (2000)
  31. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed", 91, pp.201~226 (1999)
  32. "Openness and growth: a time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries", 48, pp.419~447 (1996)
  33. "The Feldstein-Horioka puzzle revisited", 21, pp.555~564 (2002)
  34. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels", 115, pp.53~74, University of Cambridge
  35. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control", pp.231~254 (1988)
  36. "Estimation and hypothesis testing of cointegration vectors in Gaussian vector autoregressive models", eco(metrica), pp.1551~1580 (1991)
  37. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis Journal of Econometrics", pp.389~402 (1992)
  38. "Determination of the cointegration rank in the presence of a linear trend Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics", pp.383~397 (1992)
  39. "Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models" (1995), Oxford University Press
  40. "The full information maximum likelihood procedure for inference on cointegration - with applications to the demand for money Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics", pp.169~210 (1990)
  41. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for U.K. Journal of Econometrics", pp.211~244 (1992)
  42. "Spurious regression and residual-based tests for cointegration in panel data", 90, pp.1~44 (1999)
  43. "On the estimation and inference of a cointegrated regression in panel data", pp.179~222 (2000), Amsterdam: JAI Press (Elsevier Science)
  44. "Trade liberalization and productivity growth in Korean manufacturing industries: price protection, market power, and scale efficiency", 62, pp.55~83 (2000)
  45. "Exports and growth: Granger causality analysis on OECD countries with a panel data approach", 23, pp.978~992 (2006)
  46. "Import protection as export promotion Monopolistic competition in international trade" (1984), Oxford University Press
  47. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root Journal of Econometrics", pp.159~178 (1992)
  48. "Foreign trade regime and economic growth in developing countries"
  49. "Intra-industry trade under perfect monopolistic competition Journal of International Economics", pp.151~175 (1980)
  50. "Unit root tests in panel data working paper 92-23. Dept. of Economics University of California" (1992)
  51. "Unit root tests in panel data working paper. University of California" (1993)
  52. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties", 108, pp.1~24 (2002)
  53. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivariate VAR framework", 15, pp.1155~1168 (2005)
  54. "A comparative study of unit root tests with panel data and a new simple test", 61(4), pp.631~652 (1999)
  55. "Nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: evidence from a small post-Bretton Woods panel", 53, pp.29~52 (2001)
  56. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data", 17, pp.57~84 (1998)
  57. "The effects of openness, trade orientation, and human capital on total factor productivity", 63, pp.399~423 (2000)
  58. "A meta-analysis of the export growth hypothesis", 91, pp.395~401 (2006)
  59. "Investment in humans", and eco(mic growth), pp.69~75 (1966)
  60. "Purchasing power parity and unit root test using panel data", 15(3), pp.405~418 (1996)
  61. "Can trade liberalization stimulate economic growth in Africa?", 26(3), pp.497~506 (1998)
  62. "Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis; new results" (1997), Indiana University
  63. "Critical values for cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels with multiple regressors", 61(4), pp.653~670 (1999)
  64. "Fully modified OLS for heterogeneous cointegrated panels", 15, pp.93~130 (2000), Amsterdam: JAI Press (Elsevier Science)
  65. "Panel cointegration: asymptotic and finite sample properties of pooled time series tests with an application to the PPP hypothesis", 20, pp.597~625 (2004)
  66. "The economic development of Latin America and its principal problems Economic Bulletin for Latin America" (1962)
  67. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels", 23, pp.867~895 (2004)
  68. "The export-output growth nexus: evidence from African and Asian countries", 27, pp.929~940 (2005)
  69. "Trade policy and economic growth: A skeptic's guide to the cross-national evidence" (2001), Cambridge, MA: MIT Press
  70. "International trade, economic growth and intellectual property rights: a panel study of developed and developing countries", 78, pp.529~547 (2005)
  71. "An empirical investigation of exports development and growth in developing countries Challenging the neoclassical theory of export-led growth"
  72. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation", 72, pp.57~89 (2003)
  73. "Capital investment, international trade and economic growth in China: evidence in the 1980-90s", 9(1), pp.73~84 (1998)

관련 논문AI추천

이 간행물의 다른 논문 (4건)