국제 테러리즘에 관한 연구 - 핵테러의 발생가능성과 방지대책을 중심으로 -

Abstract

The ultimate purpose of the thesis is to verify the possibility and the fear of nuclear terrorism. The reason we cannot exactly estimate the consequences of a nuclear threat is because we it has never occurred before. However, it is a horrifying event that no one can even imagine. An enormous aftermath of a nuclear terror to include mass casualties, mass destruction, political, economic, sociocultural, psychological will be followed. There will be not only sociopolitical chaos but also astronomical costs to pay for. Even a nuclear devise that is not sophisticated may not achieve the goal of a terror, the sociopolitical chaos and impact will be beyond imagination. It is inevitable for a terror to occur given the strong resolution of the terrorists, terrorists’ accessibility to nuclear weapons or basic material to produce nuclear weapons. The main strategy to prevent nuclear terror is to deny access of the terrorists on nuclear weapons or nuclear materials. To achieve this goal we should establish international security and order in accordance to the Three No’s Doctrine and Seven Yeses. The 3 No’s Doctrines are as follows. 1)first condition is to prevent release and losses of nuclear weapons and materials. 2)Prevent terrorist states from possessing facilities to produce nuclear level plutonium after uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing. 3)allowing the current 8 countries that have nuclear weapons (US, UK, France, Russia, China, India, Pakistan, and Israel) to possess more nuclear weapons. The Sevens Yeses are as follows. 1) Absolute national priority to prevent nuclear terrorism, 2) concentrated war on terror, 3) mplement a humble foreign policy, 4)a global network coalition to prevent terrorism, 5) intelligence capability required to the success of nuclear terrorism, 6) handling of dirty bombs (expansion of radioactive material), 7) Establish layers of defense posture So far we are successful in achieving nuclear deterrence. However, if terrorist have nuclear weapons in their hands one blast will destroy a city or even a nation causing tremendous damage and casualties easily. We will not be able to maintain deterrence forever and the activity of international terrorists are too much unstable. In the end as more nations have access to the use of nuclear and chemical biological weapons, the more threat we will face by terrorists. The US government is highly concerned on the possible nuclear weapon terror activity by extremist. High attention is paid to WMD and nuclear weapon terror after 9/11. We are living in a time where terrorist activities are hard to predict when and how. Especially with the expansion of WMD, this can reinforce the military capabilities of the terrorist. Asymmetric threat to include terrorism cannot be solved by military means only. The international society should get together. In this regard, the future national security strategy should include military, political, diplomatic, economic, intelligence. We need to shift to a comprehensive strategic approach in dealing with this treat. Terror can exercise influence to the international community in the future. Terrorism will expand in scope and capability. A more powerful and violent terrorist will threaten the lives and systems of the international society. The weapons they use will include conventional, informational, nuclear, bio chemical. In the future terrorism in the international community will be independent or be supported by a nation. It will turn into a more violent action and more precise in propaganda and political use.