도시공간구조의 단핵-다핵 변화와온실가스 배출 간의 동태적 관계 분석
Urban Spatial Structure Transition from Monocentric to Polycentric Form and Its Dynamic Relationship with Greenhouse Gas Emissions
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초록
본연구는도시공간구조의중심성변화가온실가스배출에미치는영향을실증적으로규명하고자하였다. 경기도20개시군구를대상으로2010년과2020년간의중심성분포변화를통해단핵에서다핵구조로의전환정도를정량화하였으며, 이를Scope 1 직접배출량변화와비교·분석하였다. 중심성은종사자수분포를기반으로공간자기상관지표(LISA, Getis-Ord G, G*, Geary’s C)를활용해측정하였고, 분석방법으로는공간적상호작용과시계열효과를반영한공간패널회귀모형을적용하였다. 또한지역별반응의이질성을확인하기위해산점도분석을병행하였다. 분석결과, 다핵성이증가할수록온실가스배출도유의하게증가하는경향이나타났으며, 일부지역에서는중심성이강화되었음에도배출량이감소하는사례도확인되었다. 이는도시내중심성구조의변화가모든지역에서동일한환경효과를유발하지않음을의미하며, 교통인프라와산업입지등도시맥락이중요한조절변수로작용함을시사한다. 본연구는도시공간구조의중심성변화를시공간적으로통합분석함으로써, 지역맞춤형탄소감축전략수립의필요성을제언한다.
Abstract
This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in urban spatial centrality on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Focusing on 20 cities and districts (si/gun/gu) within Gyeonggi Province, the study quantifies the shift from monocentric to polycentric structures by analyzing the distributional changes in centrality between 2010 and 2020. Centrality is measured using spatial autocorrelation indices-LISA, Getis-Ord G, G*, and Geary’s C-based on the distribution of employment. A spatial panel regression model, which accounts for both spatial interactions and temporal dynamics, is employed as the main analytical framework. In addition, scatterplot analyses are conducted to examine regional heterogeneity in responses. The results indicate that a higher degree of polycentricity is generally associated with an increase in Scope 1 direct GHG emissions. However, certain regions show a decline in emissions despite strengthened centrality, suggesting that changes in urban spatial structure do not yield uniform environmental effects across all areas. This highlights the contextual role of factors such as transportation infrastructure and industrial location as key moderating variables. By integrating spatial and temporal perspectives in the analysis of urban centrality, this study underscores the need for region-specific carbon reduction strategies tailored to urban structural dynamics.