인구고령화가 식음료 산업의 소비지출에 미치는 영향에 관한 실증분석
Effects of Population Aging on Food and Beverage Consumption Expenditure
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This paper investigates the impacts of population aging on the food and beverage consumption expenditure using auto-regressive distributed lag(ADL) regression model. By estimating food and beverage consumption function introducing population aging variable, elasticities of age-specific disposable income, relative price, and interest rate were derived and the effects of population aging on food and beverage consumption were analyzed using quarterly data in 1990 to 2016. Income elasticities were shown to be the biggest value 0.62 in the forties, 0.52 in the lower thirties, 0.51 in the fifties and the smallest one of 0.41 in the upper sixties. These results implies acceleration of population aging will affects as a declining factor to the food and beverage industry. Price elasticities were found to be the most responsive value of -0.58 in the fifties and the least responsive one of -0.39 in the forties. The lower thirties and the upper sixties showed -0.49 and –0.44 respectively. Interest rate elasticity estimate, household on average, showed 0.04 which means negligible effects on the food and beverage consumption. Population aging affects food and beverage consumption as an U-shape. The critical value of changing consumption patterns is 0.29 in the population aging index. Deepening population aging will function as a positive impacts to food and beverage industry.In the seasonal effects, summer shows the highest while winter does the lowest. With accelerating population aging, this study could be a reference paper in designing policy in the food and beverage industry.
Abstract
This paper investigates the impacts of population aging on the food and beverage consumption expenditure using auto-regressive distributed lag(ADL) regression model. By estimating food and beverage consumption function introducing population aging variable, elasticities of age-specific disposable income, relative price, and interest rate were derived and the effects of population aging on food and beverage consumption were analyzed using quarterly data in 1990 to 2016. Income elasticities were shown to be the biggest value 0.62 in the forties, 0.52 in the lower thirties, 0.51 in the fifties and the smallest one of 0.41 in the upper sixties. These results implies acceleration of population aging will affects as a declining factor to the food and beverage industry. Price elasticities were found to be the most responsive value of -0.58 in the fifties and the least responsive one of -0.39 in the forties. The lower thirties and the upper sixties showed -0.49 and –0.44 respectively. Interest rate elasticity estimate, household on average, showed 0.04 which means negligible effects on the food and beverage consumption. Population aging affects food and beverage consumption as an U-shape. The critical value of changing consumption patterns is 0.29 in the population aging index. Deepening population aging will function as a positive impacts to food and beverage industry.In the seasonal effects, summer shows the highest while winter does the lowest. With accelerating population aging, this study could be a reference paper in designing policy in the food and beverage industry.
참고문헌 (30)
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