Age-period-cohort analysis of smoking prevalence among young adults in Korea
2
조회
0
다운로드
5
인용
0
참고문헌
키워드
초록
OBJECTIVES: Smoking prevalence among Korean men in their thirties is substantially high (approximately 50%). An in-depth analysis of smoking trends among young adults in their twenties is necessary to devise antismoking policies for the next 10 years. This study aimed to identify the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort effects on smoking prevalence in young adults. METHODS: Subjects comprised 181,136 adults (83,947 men: 46.3%; 97,189 women: 53.7%) aged 19 to 30 years from the 2008-2013 Korea Community Health Survey. Smoking prevalence adjusted with reference to the 2008 population was applied to the age-period-cohort (APC) model to identify the independent effects of each factor. RESULTS: For men, smoking prevalence rapidly escalated among subjects aged 19 to 22 years and slowed down among those aged 23 to 30 years, declined during 2008 to 2010 but stabilized during 2011 to 2013, and declined in birth cohorts prior to 1988 but stabilized in subjects born after 1988. However, in APC models, smoking prevalence increased with age in the 1988 to 1991 birth cohort. In this birth cohort, smoking prevalence at age 19 to 20 years was approximately 24% but increased to 40% when the subjects turned 23 to 24 years. For women, smoking prevalence was too low to generate consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past six years and in recent birth cohorts, smoking prevalence in adults aged 19 to 30 years has declined and is stable. Smoking prevalence should be more closely followed as it remains susceptible to an increase depending on antismoking policies or social conditions.
Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Smoking prevalence among Korean men in their thirties is substantially high (approximately 50%). An in-depth analysis of smoking trends among young adults in their twenties is necessary to devise antismoking policies for the next 10 years. This study aimed to identify the contributions of age, period, and birth cohort effects on smoking prevalence in young adults. METHODS: Subjects comprised 181,136 adults (83,947 men: 46.3%; 97,189 women: 53.7%) aged 19 to 30 years from the 2008-2013 Korea Community Health Survey. Smoking prevalence adjusted with reference to the 2008 population was applied to the age-period-cohort (APC) model to identify the independent effects of each factor. RESULTS: For men, smoking prevalence rapidly escalated among subjects aged 19 to 22 years and slowed down among those aged 23 to 30 years, declined during 2008 to 2010 but stabilized during 2011 to 2013, and declined in birth cohorts prior to 1988 but stabilized in subjects born after 1988. However, in APC models, smoking prevalence increased with age in the 1988 to 1991 birth cohort. In this birth cohort, smoking prevalence at age 19 to 20 years was approximately 24% but increased to 40% when the subjects turned 23 to 24 years. For women, smoking prevalence was too low to generate consistent results. CONCLUSIONS: Over the past six years and in recent birth cohorts, smoking prevalence in adults aged 19 to 30 years has declined and is stable. Smoking prevalence should be more closely followed as it remains susceptible to an increase depending on antismoking policies or social conditions.
참고문헌 (28)
- "Surgeon General’s report: the health consequences of smoking" (2004)[URL]
- Park SK, "Lung cancer risk and cigarette smoking, lung tuberculosis according to histologic type and gender in a population based case-control study", Lung Cancer, 68, pp.20~26 (2010)
- Jee SH, "Smoking and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in men with low levels of serum cholesterol : the Korea Medical Insurance Corporation Study", JAMA, 282, pp.2149~2155 (1999)
- "Korea National Health Examination Survey" (2013)[URL]
- "Korea Community Health Survey" (2013)[URL]
- Choi S, "Trends in cigarette smoking among adolescents and adults in South Korea", Epidemiol Health, 36, pp.e2014023~ (2014)
- 강영준, "사회경제적 위치에 따른 흡연행태 실증분석", 사회과학연구, 41(1), pp.59~83 (2015), 사회과학연구원[DOI]
- Nam Soo Hong, "Trends in Cigarette Use Behaviors Among Adolescents by Region in Korea", 예방의학회지, 44(4), pp.176~184 (2011), 대한예방의학회
- Szklo M, Nieto, "Epidemiology: beyond the basics", pp.4~14 (2014), Jones & Bartlett Learning
- Palmore E, "When can age, period, and cohort be separated?", Soc Forces, 57, pp.282~295 (1978)
- Schaie KW, "A general model for the study of developmental problems", Psychol Bull, 64, pp.92~107 (1965)
- Jee Y, "Recent decrease in colorectal cancer mortality rate is affected by birth cohort in Korea", Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 16, pp.3951~3955 (2015)
- Clayton D, "Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age-period and age-cohort models", Stat Med, 6, pp.449~467 (1987)
- Clayton D, "Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. II: Age-period-cohort models", Stat Med, 6, pp.469~481 (1987)
- Holford TR, "Patterns of birth cohort-specific smoking histories, 1965-2009", Am J Prev Med, 46, pp.e31~e37 (2014)
- Robertson C, "Age-period-cohort models : a comparative study of available methodologies", J Clin Epidemiol, 52, pp.569~583 (1999)
- Ahacic K, "Trends in smoking in Sweden from 1968 to 2002: age, period, and cohort patterns", Prev Med, 46, pp.558~564 (2008)
- Suh MK, "Women’s smoking and drinking behavior: factors and policy options", Health Welf Policy Forum, 172, pp.59~67 (2011)
- Meang KH, "Problem of aging society and high smoking prevalence in Korea", Health Welf Policy Forum, 129, pp.2~4 (2007)
- Veday TF, "Tracing the cigarette epidemic: An age-period-cohort study of education, gender and smoking using a pseudo-panel approach", Soc Sci Res, 48, pp.35~47 (2014)
- Chen X, "APC modeling of smoking prevalence among US adolescents and young adults", Am J Health Behav, 35, pp.416~427 (2011)
- Carreras G, "Time trends of Italian former smokers 1980–2009 and 2010–2030 projections using a Bayesian age period cohort model", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 11, pp.1~12 (2013)
- Azagba S, "Cigarette taxes and smoking participation : evidence from recent tax increases in Canada", Int J Environ Res Public Health, 8, pp.1583~1600 (2011)
- Ellickson PL, "Predictors of late-onset smoking and cessation over 10 years", J Adolesc Health, 29, pp.101~108 (2001)
- Emmons KM, "Predictors of smoking among US college students", Am J Public Health, 88, pp.104~107 (1998)
- Wechsler H, "Drinking levels, alcohol problems and secondhand effects in substance-free college residences: results of a national study", J Stud Alcohol, 62, pp.23~31 (2001)
- Hafez N, "How Philip Morris built Marlboro into a global brand for young adults : implications for international tobacco control", Tob Control, 14, pp.262~271 (2005)
- Ling PM, "Why and how the tobacco industry sells cigarettes to young adults : evidence from industry documents", Am J Public Health, 92, pp.908~916 (2002)