초등교원 수요에 영향을 미치는 정책 변인 분석

Abstract

Exact forecasting for teacher demand is a hot issue in Korea. Statistical approach cannot forecast the exact demand in Korea where teacher policy is changed rapidly and the government decide the demand. This study defines the effects of policy changes in elementary school teacher demand. For this purpose, this study analyzes the limitations of the statistical approach in Korea. The variables that effect the demand can be categorized as 'natural variables' and 'policy variables.' The natural variables mean the variables such as birth rate and retirement that cannot be changed with a short term policies. The policy variables means policies that effects elementary teacher demand. The policy variables are categorized as educational condition, teacher's work load, non-homeroom teacher policies, school size, teacher welfare, newly launched policies, and social changes variables. This study analyzes the effects of each policies on elementary school teacher demand. It is suggested that the government should decide policies that will effect the demand 4 years ahead. It seems this is the only way to meet the demand and the supply for elementary school teachers.