공급망 리스크 대응 정책의 시뮬레이션 기반 평가

Abstract

Recent events, including wars, pandemics, climate change, and canal disruptions, have led to increased uncertainty in global supply chains, thereby emphasizing the necessity of logistics-level risk management. While earlier studies have identified supply chain risks and proposed response strategies, the majority have focused on retrospective and qualitative analyses, thereby limiting their ability to offer immediate policy alternatives. This study developed a simulation model to support rapid response to supply chain risks and quantitatively validated policy effectiveness through various scenarios. The target supply chain structure involved procuring electric vehicle battery components from Europe and Asia, manufacturing them in Korea, and then exporting them to the United States. This study delineated an NP-Hard problem involving complex supplier and transportation route selection issues. A discrete-event simulation using Arena was executed to evaluate key performance indicators (KPIs). These KPIs encompassed inventory policy, transportation costs, on-time deliveries, and total cost. Moreover, scenario experiments were conducted to address key risks such as typhoons, droughts, war, and earthquakes, and the effectiveness of response policies such as multi-sourcing and securing alternative transportation routes was compared and evaluated. The analysis results demonstrated that supply chain robustness exhibited significant variation depending on the policy combination, and that policy validation through simulations was effective in addressing global supply chain risks. This study makes significant contributions to both academic and practical domains. The model-based approach facilitates quantitative decision-making in the context of supply chain risk management.