베이지안 State-space 모델을 이용한 눈볼대 자원평가 및 관리방안
Stock assessment and management of blackthroat seaperch Doederleinia seaperch using Bayesian state-space model
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참고문헌
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초록
본 연구는 눈볼대 자원상태 및 어획노력량 수준을 분석해보았다. 분석에는 GLM을 통한 외끌이대형저인망, 서남해구외끌이중형저인망어업의 표준화된 CPUE추정 하였다. 그다음으로 State-Space 모델을 통해 눈볼대 자원평가를 해보았다. 분석 결과 R2값은 0.97, RMSE(제곱평균제곱근)값은 0.003으로 모델의 적합하다고 분석되었으며, 눈볼대의 추정계수들의 95% 신뢰구간 범위는 MSY(최대지속적생산량)는 2,634∼6,765톤, K(환경수용력)는 33,180∼62,820톤, q(어획능률)는 2.14E-06∼3.59E-06, 그리고 r(본원적성장률)의 경우에는 0.31∼0.72 로 분석되었다.
Abstract
This study is aimed to take a stock assessment of blackthroat seaperch Doederleinia seaperch regarding the fishing effort of large-powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery. For the assessment, the state-space model was implemented and the standardized catch per unit effort (CPUE) of large powered Danish Seine Fishery and Southwest Sea Danish Seine Fishery which is necessary for the model was estimated with generalized linear model (GLM). The model was adequate for stock assessment because its r-square value was 0.99 and root mean square error (RMSE) value was 0.003. According to the model with 95% confidence interval, maximum sustainable yield (MSY) of Blackthroat seaperch is from 2,634 to 6,765 ton and carrying capacity (K) is between 33,180 and 62,820. Also, the catchability coefficient (q) is between 2.14E-06 and 3.95E-06 and intrinsic growth rate (r) is between 0.31 and 0.72.
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