붉은대게(Chinonoecetes japonicus) 자원평가를 위한 잉여생산량모델의 비교 분석
Comparative Analysis on Surplus Production Models for Stock Assessment of Red Snow Crab Chinonoecetes japonicus
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초록
This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models which are effective in assessing red snow crab Chinonoecetes japonicus resources and to select and apply an effective stock assessment model in the future. In order to select an effective stock assessment model, a process-error model, observation-error model, and a Bayesian state-space model were estimated. Analytical results show that the least error is observed between the estimated CPUE (catch per unit effort) and the observed CPUE when using the Bayesian state-space model. For the Bayesian state-space model, the 95% credible interval(CI) ranges for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), carrying capacity (K), catchability coefficient (q), and intrinsic growth (r) are estimated to be 10,420-47,200 tons, 185,200-444,800 tons, 3.81E-06-9.02E-06, and 0.14-0.66, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian state-space model was most reliable among models.
Abstract
This study is aimed to compare stock assessment models which are effective in assessing red snow crab Chinonoecetes japonicus resources and to select and apply an effective stock assessment model in the future. In order to select an effective stock assessment model, a process-error model, observation-error model, and a Bayesian state-space model were estimated. Analytical results show that the least error is observed between the estimated CPUE (catch per unit effort) and the observed CPUE when using the Bayesian state-space model. For the Bayesian state-space model, the 95% credible interval(CI) ranges for the maximum sustainable yield (MSY), carrying capacity (K), catchability coefficient (q), and intrinsic growth (r) are estimated to be 10,420-47,200 tons, 185,200-444,800 tons, 3.81E-06-9.02E-06, and 0.14-0.66, respectively. The results show that the Bayesian state-space model was most reliable among models.
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