서울 대중교통체계 개편 전후의 버스사고 비교

Abstract

July 1, 2004 the Seoul Metropolitan Government introduced major public transportation reform measures in the city. They included the demarcation of 'bus rapid transit' corridors, the introduction of a 'semi-public' management system, and a fare and ticketing system integrating transportation modes and routes. This study consists of an analysis of the changes in the pattern of bus accidents which resulted from the implementation of the reforms, and is grounded upon accident records maintained by individual bus companies. The data encompasses a total of 589 incidents recorded between October and December 2003, and 485 incidents recorded over the corresponding period in 2004. It includes company details, and comprehensive information concerning each accident. The study shows that there were 17.66% fewer bus traffic accidents in the last quarter of 2004 than were recorded in the same period in 2003, whilst bus traffic accident casualties were reduced by 10.78% over the same time span. The traffic accident prediction model utilized in the study was developed using bus company operating policies combined with related variables concerning bus drivers, such as wages earned, hours worked per day, days worked per month, mileage travelled, and the number of vehicle repair personnel required. Multiple Regression Analysis procedure was applied to regulate analysis of the model. It was found that bus accident statistics were influenced by factors such as the extent of bus driving experience, wages received, the age of the vehicle, the number of repair personnel, and the ratio of bus exclusive lanes to the length of total bus routes.