카자흐스탄 나자르바예프 정부의 이슬람정책 변화와 그 정치적 요인들: 선거권위주의 체제로의 진화와 지구적 ‘테러와의 전쟁’을 중심으로
The Change of the Nazarbayev Government’s Islam Policy in Kazakhstan and Its Political Factors
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카자흐스탄 나자르바예프 정부는 독립 초기 종교적 다원주의에 입각한 매우 온건한 이슬람정책을 펼쳤으나, 2000년대 초중반 이후 이를 매우 억압적인 노선으로 전환하였다. 본 연구에 따르면, 나자르바예프 정부의 이슬람정책 변화에 영향을 미친 첫 번째 정치적 요인은 급진 이슬람의 실제적 위협 증대였다. 이는 나자르바예프 정부로 하여금 이슬람정책을 강경 기조로 급히 전환하게끔 강하게 동기화시켰다. 두 번째 정치적 요인은 나자르바예프 정부가 처해 있던 대내적 · 대외적 기회구조의 변화였다. 먼저 국내정치적 측면에서 보자면, 2000년대 초반을 전후해 최대 소수민족인 러시아계의 세력이 현저히 줄어드는 등 초다민족 · 다문화 사회의 원심력이 약화되고, 나아가 민족주의 성향의 선거권위주의 체제까지 구축되기에 이르자, 나자르바예프 정부로서도 이전과는 달리 매우 통제적인 이슬람정책을 펼 수 있는 기회를 맞게 되었다. 또 한편, 2001년의 ‘9/11 테러’ 이후 조성된 전지구적 ‘테러와의 전쟁’ 국면, 미국과 카자흐스탄 사이에 구축된 전략적 협력관계, 그리고 다수의 역내 다자안보협력기구들을 통한 공동의 대테러정책 플랫폼 등은 공히 나자르바예프 정부가 이슬람정책을 강경 노선으로 전환하고, 이를 지속할 수 있도록 하는 데 유의한 영향을 끼친 중대한 국제정치적 기회가 되었다.
Abstract
The Nazarbayev government of Kazakhstan pursued a quite moderate Islam policy in the early period after its independence from the Soviet Union, but has rapidly changed it into a very oppressive policy line after the early to mid 2000s. According to this study, the first political factor that contributed to the change in Islamic policy of the Nazarbayev government is the increase in a real threat of Islam radicalism. This strongly motivated the Nazarbayev government to change its Islam policy into a strong coercive line. The second political factor is the change of domestic and international opportunity structures that the Nazarbayev was faced with. Firstly, the Nazarbayev government could gain an opportunity to implement the very coercive policy, since the latent centrifugal forces based on the multiethnic and multicultural society began to be weakened along with a noticeable reduction of the influence of the biggest ethnic minority of Kazakhstan, Russians, and furthermore a nationalist electoral authoritarian regime was finally built before and after the early 2000s. On the other hand, all the phases of global “war on terrorism” after “9/11”, the relations for strategic cooperation between the US and Kazakhstan, and the common anti-terrorism platform under the various regional multilateral security cooperation bodies became significant international opportunities for the Nazabayev government to transform its Islam policy into the oppressive line and to sustain it.
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