부강한 중국의 등장과 중국위협론, 그리고 한반도

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to explore the substance of the socalled theory of China threat and to exam the implications of the Sino-American tensions produced by the rise of a strong China in the process of dealing with the Korean issues Thus the first part of the paper focuses on the analysis of the China threat theory in terms of China’s economic and military power as well as in terms of Chinese nationalism aspiring to recover China’s great power status in the 21 century. Based on this analysis, I argue that the China threat theory is somewhat exaggerated, but not a totally groundless fallacy. That is, there are some reasons to believe that a strong China becomes the subject of “challenge to and competition with” them, if not a threat. Therefore the Sino-American relations in the post Cold War era can be characterized with the complicated dynamics of cooperation and competition between them. This dual relationship of cooperation and competition between the hegemonic US and a strong China may keep each other from intervening too much in the Korean issue. The Sino-American tensions produced by the rise of a strong China therefore can create a historic opportunity for the two Koreas to bring about the peaceful coexistence and gradual reunification based on the inter Korean dialogue and negotiation.