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분점정부와 법안흥정: 일본의 사례, 1986~2009

Divided Government and Legislative Bargaining: Evidence from Japan

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극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2016.12|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제32권 제4호|pp. 35-73|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2016.32.4.002

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참고문헌

키워드

일본Japan분점정부Divided GovernmentLegislative BargainingBargaining Game Theory법안흥정흥정게임이론경합위험 사건사 분석Competing Risks Event History Analysis
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 연구는 분점정부가 입법결과에 미치는 영향을 일본의 사례를 통해 해명하려는 하나의 시도이다. 분점정부를 집권당과 주축 반대당이 정책양보와 입법연합을 교환하는 하나의 흥정게임으로 모형화하여 그 정책효과를 가늠한다. 집권당과 주축 반대당 사이의 정책 불일치의 수준과 두 정당이 법안흥정에 나서는 헌정체제의 상이한 맥락에 따라 분점정부의 입법효과에 차이가 있다고 주장한다. 경험적 분석의 결과는 집권당과 주축 반대당 사이의 정책거리가 멀수록 법안가결 가능성은 낮아지고 법안폐기 가능성은 높아진다는 가설을 지지한다. 또한 의회제 헌정체제에서는, 대통령제 헌정체제에서와 비교하여, 집권당과 주축 반대당 사이의 정책거리가 멀수록 법안수정 가능성이 높아진다는 가설을 지지한다.

Abstract

This paper explores divided government and its policy consequences in Japan. It models divided government as a bargaining game to argue that the effect of divided government on executive’s lawmaking outcomes varies depending on the policy disagreement between the governing party and the pivotal opposition party and the constitutional settings in which the governing party operates. Specifically, the larger policy disagreement between the governing party and the pivotal opposition party, an executive bill is less likely to be accepted and is more likely to be abandoned before the floor-stage vote. The larger policy disagreement between the governing party and the pivotal opposition party, an executive bill is more likely to be amended in a democracy that adopts parliamentary constitution and is less likely to be amended in a democracy that adopts presidential constitution.

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