휴전협상에서 북ㆍ중ㆍ소 3국의 태도 변화 및 결과
The Positions and Its Change of North Korea, China, and the Soviet Union in the Korean Armistice Negotiations
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1951년 5월 말 제5차 전역 직후 북중연합군이 전면적인 패배 위험에 처하게 되자, 마오쩌둥은 협상을 통해 전쟁을 끝낼 것을 결정하였다. 마오쩌둥은 38선 군사분계선과 외국군 철군을 휴전협상 조건으로 김일성에게 제안하였고, 상대방이 이를 받아들이지 않을 경우 대규모 공격을 개시할 것도 약속하였다. 김일성은 이에 동의하여 함께 스탈린 설득에 나섰으며, 스탈린은 대규모 공세를 개시할 수 있는 재정비 시간을 벌기 위해 휴전회담 개시에 동의하였다. 그러나 휴전회담은 군사분계선 획정과 외국군 철군 문제에 대한 이견으로 인해 처음부터 교착 상태에 빠졌다. 중국은 조속한 타결을 위해 양보를 주장하였지만, 북한은 원래의 조건을 고수하려 하였다. 이후 유엔군의 공세로 막대한 타격을 입은 김일성이 38선 군사분계선 주장을 철회하고 조속한 휴전 실현으로 태도를 바꾸면서 회담은 급진전되었다. 이에 소련은 기존의 휴전조건을 고수할 것을 주장하였지만, 북한과 중국의 반발에 부딪쳐 실패하였다. 1952년 4월까지 쌍방은 포로교환 의제를 제외한 모든 의제에서 합의를 이루었다. 그러나 중국은 ‘제1차 5개년 계획’에 대한 소련의 지원을 얻기 위해 포로교환 의제의 타결을 고의로 지연시키며 전쟁을 계속할 것을 결정하였다. 1952년 8월 중국은 이러한 결정을 스탈린에게 통보하면서 대규모 경제원조 제공을 요청하였다. 스탈린과 마오쩌둥은 자신들의 전략적 이익과 경제적 이익을 상호 맞교환하였으며, 이 과정에서 조속한 휴전을 바라던 김일성의 주장은 철저히 무시되었다.
Abstract
In the aftermath of the 5th campaign in the May of 1951, the Chinese People's Volunteers was on the verge of complete defeat. Mao Zedong, in turn, decided to stop the Korean War through negotiations even though Kim Il-sung and Iosif Stalin strived to continue the war. While proposing the military demarcation line along the 38th parallel and the withdrawal of foreign military troops as the terms for negotiations, Mao pledged Kim the resumption of military offensive if the counterparts would not accept the terms, trying to win over Kim's opinion. Kim accepted these suggestions and tried to persuade Staline with Mao. In the end, Stalin agreed to their opinion but his main purpose was to buy time for China-North Korea allied forces to reorganize its military, rather than the success of negotiations. After the commencement of negotiations, Beijing tried to make progress by accepting concessions whereas Pyongyang adhered to the original negotiating terms. However the UN's military offense in 1951 severely damaged North Korea, and it led Kim to retreat from the previous conditions about the 38th parallel and withdrawal of foreign troops, advocating for a swift armistice. With the change of Pyongyang's position, the negotiations regained momentum. At this time Moscow sought a breakdown of the negotiations by insisting on the original negotiating terms but failed. By the April of 1952 both sides agreed on all the agendas except the issue of prisoners of war(POW). However, Beijing decided to procrastinate the POW negotiations and conveyed its will to continue the war to Moscow in order to secure strong support for the “First Five-Year Economic Plan” with asking for a massive economic aid plan at the same time. The tradeoff between Stalin and Mao based on their own interests dictated the decision to prolong the war and the Korean War stopped only after the death of Stalin.
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