말레이시아 선거정치와 정치변동: 2008년 총선 이후 보궐선거정국을 중심으로
Malaysia's Electoral Politics and Political Change: Focusing on By-elections after the 2008 General Election
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2008년 총선에서 야당의 약진에도 불구하고 지난 50년 이상 공고화된 패권적 집권연합체제가 경쟁적 양당연합체제로 변화할 가능성이 높다는 분석은 여전히 시기상조라는 여론이 우세하다. 그러나 최근 전개되는 일련의 정치상황은 말레이시아에서 가까운 미래에 선거정치구도의 재편은 물론 종족정치로 대변되는 전통적 갈등구조의 변화도 조심스레 예측된다. 특히 2008년 총선 이후 2010년까지 13차례의 보궐선거에서 야당이 8곳에서 승리함으로써 1999년과 2008년 총선에서 나타난 패권적 정치구도에 대한 민심의 변화가 여전히 지속되거나 오히려 강화되고 있음을 보여준다. 통상적으로 말레이시아에서 보궐선거는 여당이 ‘3M’으로 요약되는 ‘Money’, ‘Media’, ‘Machinery’를 집중시켜 절대적 우위를 점해왔던 점을 고려할 때 2008년 총선 이후 보궐선거에서의 야당의 선전은 매우 이례적이다. 본 연구는 2008년 총선 이후 일련의 보궐선거에 대한 분석을 통하여 향후 말레이시아 정치지형의 변화가능성을 전망하고 있다.
Abstract
It is generally noted that there has been negative relations between electoral politics and political change in Malaysia. Although there has been regular general elections in every 4-5 years without any interruption, Malaysia's hegemonic party system has never been changed for last five decades. The 2008 General Election, however, made a turning point in the history of Malaysia's electoral politics. At the election, for the first time since 1969, opposition parties achieve a remarkable success by collapsing the ruling coalition's two-third majority in parliamentary. What is more crucial is the results of series of by-elections following after the 2008 General Election. During the by-elections held in between the 2008 General Election and the end of 2010, the coalition of opposition parties won 8 out of 13. Considering a by-election is regarded as the ruling coalition's political safeguard by utilizing 3M, that is Money, Media, and Machinery, the results of by-elections since the 2008 General Election is remarkable enough to assume the possibility of transforming Malaysia's long-lasting hegemonic party system to a more competitive two-coalition party system. This article examines the detailed results of the series of by-elections and its political implications towards the nexus of electoral politics and political change in Malaysia.
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