북한 저발전의 정치 논리: 탈사회주의 체제이행국 비교
Political Logic of Economic Underdevelopment: The Case of North Korea in Comparative Post-socialist Transition Economies
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초록
이 연구는 북한 저발전의 근인을 시장 형성 단계에서 필요한 제도 개혁을 뒷받침할 ‘공공재’ 정책의 과소 공급에서, 그 원인을 공공재 정책의 과소 공급 유인을 지탱하는 소규모 ‘승리연합’에 기초한 ‘개인 독재’ 정치체제에서, 각각 찾는다. 개인 독재는 체제 유지를 ‘사유재’ 정책 공급으로 충분한 소규모 승리연합에 의존하기 때문에 시장 형성 단계에 필수적인 제도 개혁에 착수할 정치 유인이 낮고 그 결과 국가경제가 저소득 함정에서 탈출하기 어려워지기 때문이다. 개인 독재가 공공재 정책 과소 공급의 유인 구조로, 공공재 정책 과소 공급이 경제 빈곤으로, 순차적으로 이어지는 ‘저발전의 정치 논리’를 북한의 사례는 전형적으로 구현하고 있다. 경험적 검증 전략으로 이 연구는 탈사회주의 체제이행국 다수 사례 비교의 맥락에서 경제발전 및 정치 자유화의 장기 변화와 관련한 북한 사례와 여타 사례의 유사성과 상이성을 추출한다. 경제발전 수준 및 정치 자유화 장기 변화 조건에서 비교가능성을 확인한 탈사회주의 체제이행국 소수 사례를 중심으로 국가 개혁 및 시장 개혁과 관련한 장기변화의 추이를 비교하고 그 결과를 개인 독재 수준의 장기 변화와 연결시켜 경험적 검증을 완성한다.
Abstract
This article argues that North Korea’s long-term economic underdevelopment has been caused by the undersupply of ‘public goods’ policies, which is originated from its personalist dictatorship with small-scale ‘winning coalition.’ Personalist dictatorship sustained by ‘private goods’ policies that cater for small-scale winning coalition has weak political incentives to undertake institutional reforms necessary for market building, which prevents the national economy from escaping from ‘low income trap.’ The case of North Korea reveals the political logic of economic underdevelopment in which personalist dictatorship structures undersupply of public goods policies that hinder economic development. This article takes a sequential comparative strategy that starts with a large-N studies on post-socialist transition economies in order to select comparable small-N cases that are relevant for testing the political logic of economic underdevelopment. The results support that North Korea’s personalist dictatorship is largely responsible for its long-term economic poverty.
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