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신호 수신(受信)의 메커니즘과 북미 관계

Mechanisms of Receiving Signals and the U.S.-North Korean Relations

유현주
극동문제연구소 (THE INSTITUTE FOR FAR EASTERN STUDIES)|2024.03|한국과 국제정치 (Korea and World Politics)|제40권 제1호|pp. 43-75|DOI 10.17331/kwp.2024.40.1.002

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키워드

Signal신호북미관계Audience CostSunk CostSingapore Summit매몰 비용청중 비용북미 정상 회담U.S.-North Korean Relations
주제분류정치외교학

초록

본 논문은 신호를 받는 수신자의 두 가지 메커니즘을 논의하며, 미국이 북한과 협력하는 데 어려움을 설명한다. 구체적으로, 2018년, 2019년 두 차례 있었던 북미 정상회담을 중심으로 미국이 북한의 유화적 신호를 어떻게 해석하는지 살펴본다. 첫 번째 메커니즘은 국내 정치에 초점을 두고 협력의 청중 비용과 지도자의 역할을 고려한다. 두 번째 메커니즘은 매몰 비용 위험의 최소화로, 미국이 북한의 화해 행위를 평가할 때, 그 신호 보내기에 투입된 매몰 비용이 복구될 수 있는지 고려하는 것이다.

Abstract

This article discusses two types of theoretical mechanisms of recipients in the context of signaling in international relations and explains why the United States has difficulties in cooperating with North Korea. Placing the focus on the summit meetings in 2018 and 2019, this article examines how the United States interprets conciliatory behavior of North Korea. The first mechanism considers domestic politics, exploring audience costs and the role of leaders that face such costs. The second is related with minimizing risks from sunk costs. When Washington evaluates if Pyongyang’s conciliatory behavior is credible, it considers whether costs that the North sinks can be restored.

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