경제 위기는 극우정당의 편인가?: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁으로 인한 에너지 가격 상승과 독일 대안당 지지의 관련성을 중심으로
Does Economic Crisis Influence Far-right Party Support?: Rising Energy Prices, Russia-Ukraine War, and the Support for Alternative for Germany
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초록
본 연구는 2022년 발생한 러시아와 우크라이나 간의 전쟁이 대안당의 지지율에 미친 영향을 양적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 경제요소가 극우정당의 지지율에 미치는 영향에 대해서는 그간 많은 연구가 이루어졌으나 전기 도매가격을 변수로 설정하여 극우정당과의 상관관계 분석을 시도한 연구는 미진한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구는 이러한 학문적 공백을 메꾸고자 시도하였으며, 그 결과 분석 기간인 2015년에서 2023년 8월까지의 기간 중 전쟁 충격이 독일을 강타하지 않은 기간에는 전기 도매가격의 상승이 대안당의 지지율을 하락시키는 경향이 있으나 전쟁 충격이 있는 기간에는 대안당의 지지율을 오히려 상승시키는 경향이 있음을 확인했다. 아울러 2015년 독일에 발생한 난민위기의 영향력을 확인하기 위해 망명 신청 건수를 포함해 분석을 시도하였고 반난민의 이슈는 여전히 대안당에게 중요함 역시 확인하였다. 이로써 본 연구는 전쟁 충격이 없던 기간에는 전기 도매가격의 상승이 대안당의 지지율을 하락하는 요인으로 작용한 반면, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁의 충격이 독일을 강타한 기간에는 전기 도매가격의 상승이 대안당의 지지율을 견인했음과 독일 내에 난민사태가 발생한지 오랜 시간이 흘렀음에도 반난민과 반이민의 이슈는 여전히 대안당에게 중요한 전략적 요소임을 확인하였다.
Abstract
This study aims to analyze the impact of the war between Russia and Ukraine in 2022 on the support of the Alternative for Germany(AfD). While there have been a number of studies investigating the influence of economic factors on the support rate of far-right parties such as the AfD, there has been a lack of research to analyze the effect of energy prices. Therefore, this study attempts to fill this gap by analyzing the support for the AfD from 2015 to 2023. The results indicate that during periods without war shocks, an increase in electricity prices acted as a factor decreasing the support rate of the AfD, whereas during periods of the Russia-Ukraine war shock hitting Germany, the rise in electricity prices led to an increase in the support rate of the AfD. Additionally, to assess the impact of the refugee crisis in Germany since 2015, asylum application numbers were included in the analysis. The issue of anti-refugee sentiment remains an important concern for the AfD. Despite the passage of a considerable amount of time since the refugee crisis began in Germany, the issues of pro- and anti-refugee sentiments remain strategically important factors for the AfD.
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