동북아 물류중심항만정책에 대한 프로그램논리모형의 설계 및 분석

Abstract

The logistics-hub port policy focusing on Busan and Gwangyang ports has caused many debates about the feasibility and desirability of the policy. A program logic model was applied in the study to analyse the logistics-hub port policy of the Korean government. The results from applying the program logic model to the policy show that there are policy failures in two aspects. First, in the policy implementation, ‘principle of selection and concentration’ was not carried out as scheduled by the government. In implementing the logistics-hub port policy, the share of investments in Busan and Gwangyang ports has been decreasing while those of other ports except Busan and Gwangyang has been increasing. This implies that the policy was equity-oriented which was driven by political forces. And the principle of increasing the budget of ports and railways but decreasing that of roads has been implemented as scheduled. But in terms of the economic feasibility on the principle, there is much doubt about that. Second, in the policy design, the policy using the same instruments and measures toward Busan and Gwangyang ports seems to be very problematic. Especially, the policy whose goal is making Gwangyang the logistics-hub port in the Northeast Asia has many obstacles in terms of its desirability and feasibility. Developing a redesigned policy including industrial policies has been recommended to make Gwangyang a hub port in the Northeast Asia. Otherwise, the current policy for Gwangyang port needs to be modified. This study tries to analyse the logical causality among inputs, activities, outputs, intial outcomes, intermediate outcomes, and final outcomes of the logistics-hub port policy. But it doesn't exceed beyond the exploratory study since developing a program logic model with high accuracy and evaluating logical causality of various elements are not so easy. And excluding the external elements-contextual factors and antecedent variables-is the limitation of this study. Therefore, it needs further study using many statistics data and precise econometric analysis.