Sanctions and Energy Security: South Korea’s Strategic Shift to Algerian Oil
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This study examines South Korea’s crude oil imports from Algeria following the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran in 2019. The loss of Iranian oil exposed Korea’s dependence on Gulf and Iranian supplies and led to Algerian oil emerging as a strategic substitute. Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2024 and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis identifies both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium effects. Results show that sanctions significantly increased Korean imports from Algeria, supporting the substitution hypothesis, while exchange rate depreciation reduced imports, underscoring the role of macro-financial stability in energy security. The findings shift attention from sanctioned states to sanction-observing economies, illustrating how external shocks reshape trade portfolios and global oil flows. Policy implications stress the need for diversification beyond the Middle East, closer cooperation with Algeria, and integration of currency stability into Korea’s long-term energy strategy.
Abstract
This study examines South Korea’s crude oil imports from Algeria following the re-imposition of U.S. sanctions on Iran in 2019. The loss of Iranian oil exposed Korea’s dependence on Gulf and Iranian supplies and led to Algerian oil emerging as a strategic substitute. Using quarterly data from 1980 to 2024 and an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the analysis identifies both short-run adjustments and long-run equilibrium effects. Results show that sanctions significantly increased Korean imports from Algeria, supporting the substitution hypothesis, while exchange rate depreciation reduced imports, underscoring the role of macro-financial stability in energy security. The findings shift attention from sanctioned states to sanction-observing economies, illustrating how external shocks reshape trade portfolios and global oil flows. Policy implications stress the need for diversification beyond the Middle East, closer cooperation with Algeria, and integration of currency stability into Korea’s long-term energy strategy.