Effectiveness of Economic Sanctions against North Korea and Role of China: Empirical Approach
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This study explores North Korea’s trade patterns and the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on the hermit kingdom. Using a gravity model with a panel dataset of the country’s 92 trading countries from the period of 1999 to 2014, this paper examines North Korea’s trade patterns and compares the model-based estimated bilateral trade flows with actual trade ones. Main findings are: (1) North Korea’s trade has been excessively skewed to China as a result of economic sanctions from the United Nations and international community, largely driven by the United States; (2) The U.S. - North Korea trade would not be seriously affected by the sanctions due to their low estimated trade flows; (3) The latter finding raises further questions over the effectiveness of the current sanctions and asks for active cooperation from China.
Abstract
This study explores North Korea’s trade patterns and the effectiveness of economic sanctions imposed on the hermit kingdom. Using a gravity model with a panel dataset of the country’s 92 trading countries from the period of 1999 to 2014, this paper examines North Korea’s trade patterns and compares the model-based estimated bilateral trade flows with actual trade ones. Main findings are: (1) North Korea’s trade has been excessively skewed to China as a result of economic sanctions from the United Nations and international community, largely driven by the United States; (2) The U.S. - North Korea trade would not be seriously affected by the sanctions due to their low estimated trade flows; (3) The latter finding raises further questions over the effectiveness of the current sanctions and asks for active cooperation from China.
참고문헌 (21)
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